Coronavirus: Computer modellers push back estimates for when it could be safe for each state to reopen

‘The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release’

States should not start to relax their social distancing measures for weeks or even months, a computer modelling programme has suggested – as more governors announce that they will begin to open up their economies within days.

Computer projections from the University of Washington‘s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation are warning that some states should wait longer than previously thought to end social distancing measures, despite several already beginning the process amid mounting political pressure in Washington and protests from right-wing demonstrators.

The institute releases projections every few days, but Wednesday’s report estimates that its home state, Washington, should wait until 26 May to reopen, eight days later than the previously predicted date, 16 May.

The projections estimate that North Dakota should be the last state to reopen, on 12 July, one day later than the institute’s previous estimate.

Montana is estimated to be the earliest to be able to reopen safely, with a projection of 1 May, three days earlier than the previously stated 4 May.

In total, it projects that 29 states should start ending social distancing measures in May, 20 in June and one in July.

Georgia is among several states which are already beginning to scale back lockdown measures. Donald Trump has been urging states to begin taking measures to open up the economy against a background of huge losses on the stock market, more than 20 million Americans filing for unemployment and a threat to the future of millions of businesses across the country. The institute's latest projection suggests that Georgia should not start to relax its social distancing until 8 June.

The institute's assessment assumes that the states will have the necessary equipment for testing and isolating patients, according to Geekwire.

This is far from certain, and on Tuesday, Washington governor Jay Inslee wrote to vice president Mike Pence, requesting federal assistance to help give the state adequate coronavirus testing.

“Just as a driver cannot travel their full distance on a quarter-tank of gas, we cannot unlock the full capacity of our labs without additional testing supplies and infrastructure from the federal government,” Mr Inslee wrote.

The institute’s projections also estimate that the coronavirus death toll for the US will be 65,956, by 4 August, rising from its last prediction of 60,308.

In the report, the institute’s epidemiologists said that an increase in deaths in the US affected the predictions.

“The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release, as well as predictions of longer (and flatter) epidemic peaks for several states,” the report read.

The outlet report that the institute’s predictions have faced criticism for changing so frequently, but their head, Christopher Murray, told Geekwire last week that they are trying to give the most accurate data possible.

“As the quality and quantity of our data increase, we will offer policymakers refined views of the pandemic’s course,” Mr Murray said.

According to a tracking project hosted by Johns Hopkins University, nationally there are upwards of 835,316 people who have tested positive for coronavirus. The death toll has reached at least 46,079.