Coronavirus: Model predicts 835,000 more Americans will die if states relax lockdowns and social distancing

'You may look at some states and say ‘You know what, they’re not ready to reopen yet'

Fully relaxing lockdowns and social distancing across US cities and states could lead to at least an additional 835,000 deaths from coronavirus, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM).

The data, from the University of Pennsylvania evaluates how different levels of lockdown and behaviours will affect the outcome of the coronavirus pandemic across the country.

The data predicts the lowest number of possible cases of the disease for the end of June as 2,257,123 and deaths as 116,523 under the conditions that both social distancing measures and lockdowns continue to be implemented.

According to the model, even if states were to only partially re-open their economies and residents continued to strictly adhere to current social distancing practices, the model predicts over a million more cases of the virus will be recorded and 45,000 more deaths.

In the worst-case scenario of the model, states completely re-open and residents ignore social distancing measures, it predicts 22 million more cases of the disease than the lowest value scenario an increased death toll of over 835,000.

“You may look at some states and say ‘You know what, they’re not ready to reopen yet,’” Kent Smetters, the PWBM’s director, said according to Yahoo Finance.

The model is based on daily measures of social distancing, GDP growth, and changes in employment, according to the PWBM website.

Alongside the number of cases and deaths from the virus, the simulator also tracks employment by evaluating total change in employment during the previous seven days.

Reopening states would predict economic relief, according to the data, with a full restarting of economies states showing a 4.1 million jobs change in comparison to -18.6 for a continued full lockdown.

Mr Smetters said the decision to reopen states is ultimately a “normative judgment that comes down to the statistical value of life."

He explained: “That’s not a crude way of saying we put a dollar value on life, but it’s the idea that people will take risks all the time for economic reward."

The interactive tool uses an epidemiological framework along with estimates built from a number of data to simulate the health and economic effects of easing state lockdown policies.

The PWBM plan on updating the simulator roughly once every week with new data as the evaluation of factors changes.