Coronavirus: Map shows how Covid-19 patients could overwhelm hospitals
Best-case scenario shows 20 per cent of the population becoming infected in 18 months, which would fill 95 per cent of available beds
Coronavirus has already impacted hospitals and healthcare professionals across the US, with states like California and New York expressing concern about hospital bed shortages if the rapid progression of the virus doesn't decrease.
A new interactive map shows what an influx of patients could look like for hospitals across the country depending on the percentage of the population that's infected by the novel virus.
The data also shows how impact on the hospitals can decrease if measures like social distancing are put in place to help "flatten the curve".
ProPublica created the map based on new data and hospital capacity recorded by the Harvard Global Health Institute.
Three potential scenarios were studied: if the people infected reaches 20, 40, or 60 per cent and if these infections occurred over six, 12, or 18 months.
If 20 per cent of the population becomes infected with Covid-19 in six months, which is a "conservative" scenario, hospital beds in a vast majority of the US will be at capacity, with 50 per cent of the country experiencing twice the number of patients compared to available beds.
Even in the best-case scenario where 20 per cent of the population becomes infected over 18 months, an estimated 95 per cent of hospital beds will be filled.
The situation only gets worse if 40 per cent of the population is infected in six months, which ProPublica dubs a more "moderate' situation people could expect. In this case, more than a fifth of those cases would need hospitalisation, based on data from other countries.
At 40 per cent infected, a vast majority of hospitals would need at least twice the number of hospital beds.
In the worst-case scenario, where 60 per cent of the population would be infected in just six months, hospitals across the US could need seven times the amount of available beds depending on the location.
"Our model gives hospital leaders and policy makers a clear sense of when they will hit capacity and strategic information on how to prepare for rising numbers of patients," Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told ProPublica. "If people wonder 'Why am I social distancing?' and 'Why am I isolating myself?' this data makes that real. People should look at this data and make sure their community has a plan."
Dr Jha led the research team to develop this analysis. The data assumes each hospitalised patient will require an estimated 12 days in the hospital, based on data from China.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has warned about problems New York state could face with a lack of beds available.
"When we're going to have a real problem is when cases hit their apex and descend on the healthcare system and we will not have enough hospital beds," Mr Cuomo said on Tuesday.
Currently, the state has 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds. The number of coronavirus cases in New York is anticipated to peak in 45 days, at which point an estimated 55,000 to 110,000 patients could be hospitalised and 18,600 to 37,200 could need an ICU bed in the state alone, according to experts.
California is also estimating it will be short about 20,000 hospital beds in the worst-case scenario. The state has 88,000 hospital beds total that are available to treat Covid-19 patients.
Epidemiologists estimate between 40 to 70 per cent of the population across the US could become infected in the coming months.
Cases in the US topped 10,000 with 10,755 infected, which makes up less than one per cent of the population, and 154 people have died from the virus, according to Johns Hopkins. But experts believe positive cases are significantly higher than reported, and will continue to climb, due to an increase in testing.
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