Bush's second coup aids election race

The announcement by Libya has given President Bush his second coup in a week and delivered a resounding blow against Howard Dean, the man most likely to be his challenger in next year's presidential race.

When Saddam Hussein was dragged from a hole near Tikrit last weekend, Mr Dean pointed out that his capture had done nothing to make America safer - an analysis shared by many observers. Just six days later, however, the White House has been able to respond with what was presented as the scalp of a second dictator, purportedly brought into line by the Bush doctrine.

This time Mr Dean will find it much more difficult to counter. No matter that Libya's announcement was fuelled largely by simple economics, in the American heartlands where next year's presidential election will be fought, Tripoli's decision will be spun as another capitulation by a dangerous "madman" to the "tough" stance of Mr Bush and his ally Tony Blair, whose threats are backed up, of course, by their own vast arsenals of conventional and non-conventional weapons. It has also conveniently distracted attention from the failure to find any WMD in Iraq.

In reality, Libya has been making extensive efforts in recent years to return to the international fold and reopen the lucrative trade it once enjoyed with the West. Libya has the world's seventh largest oil reserves and Western oil companies have been lobbying Washington to lift the sanctions that were imposed in 1986 in response to Libyan terror attacks. Last year, the head of Libya's National Oil Corporation held meetings with representatives from Conoco, Marathon, Amerada Hess and Occidental to discuss deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

"What forced Gaddafi to act was a combination of things," Ray Takeyh, a Libya expert at the National Defence University, said. "UN sanctions after Lockerbie, international isolation after the Soviet Union's collapse, and internal problems that led to domestic unrest by Islamists and forces within the military."

UN sanctions were formally lifted in September after Tripoli accepted responsibility for the 1988 Lockerbie bombing and agreed to pay $10m (£5.6m) in instalments to the relatives of each of the 270 victims. Under the deal Libya paid an initial $4m but said the remaining $6m would only be paid once America lifted its own, separate sanctions and removed Tripoli from the State Department lists of countries that support terrorism.

None the less, Mr Bush may find it difficult in an election year to normalise relations with a leader who Ronald Reagan said should be "a pariah in the world community". Susan Cohen, whose only child, Theodora, was among the Lockerbie victims, signalled the views of many when she said: "I am in a state of sickened shock. This was strictly a political, commercial decision. I'm not a fool. I know it's oil and money interests."