The Big Question: Who will be the next ANC leader, and how will it affect South Africa?

(EPA)

Why are we asking this now?

This weekend sees a conference of South Africa's ruling party, the ANC, to decide the leadership of the party in what is likely to be its bitterest contest in its 76-year history. The outcome depends on the future not just of the party but the country.

The leadership battle pits the incumbent leader, Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's President, against his arch nemesis, Jacob Zuma. Mr Zuma's supporters want Mr Mbeki to set a good example for Africa by relinquishing the leadership of the ANC after a decade in power. He is also not eligible for re-election as the country's premier when his second and final term expires in 2009. But Mr Mbeki wants to go for a third term as ANC president so he can keep on controlling the levers of power and handpick his successor in 2009.

Mr Mbeki is the most prestigious political leader on the continent. Despite his many shortcomings, he has done well in managing the South African economy, which has achieved unprecedented growth. It is partly because of this that his government has gained the economic wherewithal to intervene in many troubled southern African hotspots, sending peacekeepers and negotiators to places such as Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan.

What are the ANC's rules of succession?

Exactly 4,075 delegates from the ANC's 2,700 branches across South Africa will vote for the next president of the ANC and South Africa. Technically, South Africans will choose Mr Mbeki's successor as head of the country when his second and final term expires in 2009. But because the ANC controls more than 70 per cent of the national vote, that decision will be made this weekend. The delegates are elected to attend the five-yearly conference by their branches.

So who is the front-runner?

Jacob Zuma, 65, was fired by Mr Mbeki as deputy president of the country last year over corruption allegations he is the front-runner. Mr Zuma beat Mr Mbeki in early primary elections to nominate the top leaders of the ANC by a wide margin of about 1,000 votes. Analysts see the margin as being too wide for Mr Mbeki to overturn at the final voting this weekend.

Mr Zuma, a Zulu, was born in Zululand and his official ANC biography says he received no formal education.

He joined the ANC at 17, a year before it was banned. In 1960, he was arrested and spent the next 10 years as a political prisoner at Robben Island in Cape Town with, among others, Nelson Mandela.

Upon his release, he went into exile in Swaziland where he recruited and facilitated the departure from South Africa of many young people who joined the ANC's anti-apartheid armed struggle. He returned to South Africa after the ANC was unbanned in 1990 and was appointed deputy president in 1999.

Why are so many people worried by the prospect of a Zuma presidency?

Mr Zuma is likely to face the same corruption charges over which he was fired by Mr Mbeki. His financial advisor, Schabir Shaik, is already serving a 15-year jail sentence for facilitating corrupt payments to Mr Zuma to win business contracts. Mr Zuma was also tried and acquitted of rape charges last year. During the trial, he admitted that he had had sex with a close family friend, 33 years his junior, whom he knew to be HIV positive.

Many were outraged when Mr Zuma told the judge that he had taken a shower shortly after sex as a protective measure against contracting HIV. South African anti-Aids activists were particularly outraged because, at that time, he headed the country's National Aids Council, spearheading anti-Aids efforts in a country with the highest number of people living with the disease. He also enraged many when he said that women wearing mini skirts were inviting sex.

Mr Zuma has, so far, not articulated his policies. Many of his left-wing supporters have openly called for the wholesale nationalisation of South Africa's mainstream industries and mines. If he follows their advice, many fear that South Africa, like its neighbour Zimbabwe, will be destroyed overnight.

Why is Mr Zuma the front-runner despite his many gaffes?

Some attribute Mr Zuma's popularity in the ANC to his affable and shrewd political style, in contrast with Mr Mbeki's perceived arrogance and intellectual aloofness. In fact, support for Mr Zuma is seen in some circles as a protest vote against Mr Mbeki, who keeps his distance from the grassroots and whose leadership style has alienated many in his party.

Despite South Africa's economic success, the benefits of growth have not trickled down to the poor and poverty remains a major problem. Mr Zuma portrays himself as a champion of the poor and the downtrodden. He is also a Zulu, the largest black tribe, which believes its turn for the presidency has after two Xhosas, Mr Mandela and Mr Mbeki now come. He has also presented himself as a victim of the abuse of key state organs, such as the judiciary, by Mr Mbeki, in order to thwart his ascendancy to the presidency. Repeated bungling by the prosecuting authorities trying to charge him has enhanced this perception.

Why are many worried about Mbeki continuing as president?

There is a strong school of thought that President Mbeki must emulate Mr Mandela and avoid overstaying his welcome. Because of South Africa's unique position, Mr Mbeki should set an example on the continent. Moreover, his term as President of the country expires in 2009 and the constitution prohibits him from standing.

Although the ANC constitution has no time limits, many party members are fearful of the spectre of two centres of power and would prefer the leader of the ANC to automatically become president of the country. The view is also expressed that if Mbeki gets his way and remains at the helm of the ANC, he might be tempted to change the constitution of the country and stay on after 2009, effectively destroying the legacy South Africa has built as a model of good governance in "rotten" Africa.

Despite his good management record, Mr Mbeki has many faults. His views on Aids have made him many enemies. He once infamously remarked that poverty, not HIV, was the main cause of Aids. It took the intervention of South Africa's highest court to force Mr Mbeki's government to start administering anti-retroviral Aids drugs to tens of thousands of those infected with HIV. His failure to combat rampant poverty and crime, and his support of dictators such as Robert Mugabe while they destroy their countries, has enhanced calls for policy changes and hence for a new leadership for South Africa.

Would the election of Jacob Zuma as leader of the ANC be a disaster for South Africa?

Yes...

* He is a populist with potentially dangerous economic ideas

* He is tainted by allegations of corruption while vice-president

* His views on women and Aids are sexist and ignorant

No...

* It is time for a change after a decade of Thabo Mbeki's leadership

* It should be a Zulu leader after Mandela and Mbeki, both Xhosas

* Zuma represents those left out of South Africa's pursuit of growth