20 million at risk from famine in southern Africa

UN emergency appeal: Massive funds required to avert 'all-out disaster'

The World Food Programme is warning that it may soon have to feed up to 8 million people in southern Africa as famine stalks a region wracked by drought, floods, economic mismanagement and political instability.

The UN agency is already providing food for 2.6 million, but Brenda Barton, of the WFP's African headquarters in Kenya, told The Independent on Sunday that figure "could easily double or perhaps even treble" when fact-finding missions to the six worst-affected countries report back.

The full extent of the emergency is expected to become clear within days, when the UN launches an appeal for funds to avert "all-out disaster". A total of 20 million people across the region are at risk from famine.

The WFP blames what it calls a "cocktail" of causes for the crisis, several of them man-made. Many of the ingredients are to be found in Lesotho, an impoverished mountain kingdom which appealed on Friday for £14m in emergency food aid, saying half of its 2 million people were facing devastating shortages.

Aids and weak government have compounded the effects of climatic disasters in Lesotho, where the 1998 election degenerated into an attempted coup, bloodily put down by South Africa and Botswana. The country is going to the polls again this weekend, but for many the main priority is getting something to eat.

"Talk, talk, talk. We hear a lot of words, but where is the food?" asked Mathabo Lekoatsa, the wizened first wife of a chief in Mafateng province. Mrs Lekoatsa, 78, was huddled in a bright blanket and cap against the cold outside her hut, on a hillside south of the capital, Maseru. "It's the worst it's ever been," she said. "We used to have a little, now we have nothing. I'm eating wild vegetables from the bush. All these party people pay is lip service. They do nothing."

Mahopolang Mohlomi, a 32-year-old mother of two, has work for the first time in her life, but it will last only one week: she is an election monitor. "Food aid won't last forever," she said. "We need jobs."

Southern Africa has become a laboratory for the ideas of the Nobel prize-winning economist, Amartya Sen, who argues that countries, however poor, do not suffer famine if they have independence, democracy and a relatively free press. He pointed out that Botswana and Zimbabwe escaped starvation in the early 1980s, despite suffering worse falls in grain production than Ethiopia. Botswana, still democratic, is coping well with the current crisis, but Zimbabwe, where President Mugabe is seeking to stamp out all opposition, is one of the worst-affected.

Namibia is managing to stay afloat, and South Africa produces food surpluses, though not enough to satisfy the upsurge in demand among its neighbours. But among countries in turmoil, which include Malawi and Zambia as well as Zimbabwe, lack of food is sending death rates soaring among the young, the old and those infected by HIV and Aids.

In the 1980s Bob Geldof rallied the rock world to come to the aid of Ethiopia with the Band Aid series of concerts. Nearly 20 years later his fellow Irish musician, Bono, is touring Africa with the US Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill. The U2 singer and his unlikely companion are now seeing the effects of the regional crisis for themselves.

Lesotho, which used to export food, has been plagued by decades of poor government, particularly misguided agricultural policies, which have left it vulnerable to the vagaries of the climate. The WFP's deputy country director, Viney Jain, says there are now food shortages in eight out of 10 districts and that four in every 10 children under five have stunted growth. A month ago the Prime Minister, Pakalitha Mosisili – whose Lesotho Congress for Democracy faces a stiff challenge from the former ruling Basotho National Party – declared a state of famine.

Many southern Africans are now surviving on wild fruit and berries, and by killing or selling their livestock – a desperate measure which will leave them completely dependent on outside help. But in Lesotho, according to the WFP's Ntsoaki Makibinyane, people are even being robbed of that option.

"Rascals are stealing livestock," he said." They come at night, with guns. You can't go outside, or they will shoot you. Thieves take livestock straight to the butchers, so you have no hope of getting them back."