Sacrificing Ukraine would be ‘disastrous’ for the West, MPs told
Defence experts were asked about the situation in Ukraine while speaking to a Westminster committee.
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Your support makes all the difference.Sacrificing Ukraine amid the ongoing tensions with Russia would be a “disastrous” move for the West, a defence expert has told MPs
However, the professor of strategic studies said Vladimir Putin may have “miscalculated” in his understanding of international support for Kiev.
Westminster’s Scottish Affairs Committee heard from Professor Phillips O’Brien of St Andrews University and Professor Trevor Taylor of the Royal United Service Institute on Monday.
While the session mainly focussed on the role of military bases in Scotland, the experts were also asked for their thoughts on the build-up of Russian troops around Ukraine.
Prof O’Brien said: “It would be disastrous to take the line that some are saying, that in a sense you should sacrifice Ukraine for realist reasons.
“I think that would be devastating to Europe, if you take the largest land-sized democracy in Europe and in a sense end it.”
The UK’s influence on the situation would not be as great as the US, he said, but had so far been larger than other European countries.
Prof O’Brien said: “Is it going to match what the US can do? No, nowhere close to that.
“But for a European power, clearly, the Germans don’t know what they’re doing. The French also seem a little bit torn.
“So, right now, the UK is the leading European power that is willing to provide some support to the Ukrainians.”
Describing the Russian president’s position, he said: “I think he (Putin) has miscalculated, I think he’s quite stuck right now.
“Maybe he expected everyone to abandon Ukraine and he’d have an easy win.”
Prof Taylor said “nobody knows what’s in President Putin’s mind” but maintaining deterrence against an invasion was still important.
While the UK’s contributions to Ukraine demonstrated political support they would not make a “huge military difference”, he said.
He stressed the role of “giving the Russians a way out” in resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
Prof Taylor said: “So I hope someone’s thinking about that, but it’s a very serious situation for Ukrainians.
“I don’t deeply understand why President Putin’s done it.
“But we have to remember that he has a very different political agenda in terms of the things he cares about compared to the political agenda in a Western country, where the economy is so central.”
Discussing the numbers of UK military personnel based in Scotland, Prof Taylor said they appeared to be rising.
Prof Taylor also emphasised the role of the defence industry in Scotland, such as the programme to build frigates on the Clyde and at Rosyth, while saying the Leonardo facilities in Edinburgh were “enormously important” to the RAF’s Tempest project for new fighter jets.