General Election: Top target seats, by party

The targets are based on a set of notional results for the 2019 general election.

Some target seats at the General Election could change hands on very small swings in the share of the vote (Peter Byrne/PA) (PA Wire)

Here is a list of the top target seats for the main political parties at the General Election on July 4.

The election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

To measure how well the parties do at the election, and to determine which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

These notional results have been compiled by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.

The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing in the share of the vote needed to gain the seat, calculated using the notional outcome in 2019.

The top 150 targets have been listed for Labour, the top 100 for the Liberal Democrats, the top 50 for the Conservatives and the top 10 for other parties (top nine for the SNP, as they can only make a maximum of nine gains).

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest.

The name of the constituency is followed in brackets by the notional 2019 winner of the seat, then by the size of the swing needed to gain, in percentage points.

Where appropriate, the swing takes account of the need to overtake the second placed party.

– Labour targets

1 Burnley (Con) 0.13 percentage points2 Leigh & Atherton (Con) 0.333 High Peak (Con) 0.544 Bangor Aberconwy (Con) 0.775 Wolverhampton West (Con) 0.926 Bury South (Con) 0.947 Bury North (Con) 1.208 Bolton North East (Con) 1.289 Watford (Con) 1.3510 Chingford & Woodford Green (Con) 1.4711 Wycombe (Con) 1.5912 Birmingham Northfield (Con) 1.6913 Leeds North West (Con) 1.8014 Stroud (Con) 2.0315 Keighley & Ilkley (Con) 2.1116 Stoke-on-Trent Central (Con) 2.1117 Whitehaven & Workington (Con) 2.1718 Lothian East (SNP) 2.1719 Gedling (Con) 2.2220 Walsall & Bloxwich (Con) 2.4021 Peterborough (Con) 2.4722 Vale of Glamorgan (Con) 2.5723 West Bromwich (Con) 2.6024 Cheshire Mid (Con) 2.6625 Wakefield & Rothwell (Con) 2.6726 Ynys Mon (Con) 2.6927 Derby North (Con) 2.7028 Bridgend (Con) 2.7329 Clwyd North (Con) 2.7630 Lancaster & Wyre (Con) 3.0531 Hastings & Rye (Con) 3.3632 Eltham & Chislehurst (Con) 3.3733 Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy (SNP) 3.4134 Lincoln (Con) 3.4735 Hyndburn (Con) 3.4836 Broxtowe (Con) 3.5837 Chipping Barnet (Con) 3.6038 Northampton North (Con) 3.8539 Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor (Con) 3.9340 Hendon (Con) 4.0141 Truro & Falmouth (Con) 4.0442 Wrexham (Con) 4.1843 Hull West & Haltemprice (Con) 4.3544 Blackpool South (Con) 4.3645 Calder Valley (Con) 4.5246 Milton Keynes Central (Con) 4.7047 Southampton Itchen (Con) 4.7448 Clwyd East (Con) 5.0049 Glasgow North East (SNP) 5.0150 Darlington (Con) 5.3651 Redcar (Con) 5.4552 Ipswich (Con) 5.5353 Coatbridge & Bellshill (SNP) 5.5454 Altrincham & Sale West (Con) 5.6155 Swindon South (Con) 5.7056 Cities of London & Westminster (Con) 5.7357 Airdrie & Shotts (SNP) 5.7458 Bolsover (Con) 5.7759 Shipley (Con) 5.7860 Crewe & Nantwich (Con) 5.7961 Loughborough (Con) 5.9062 Midlothian (SNP) 5.9263 Rutherglen (SNP) 5.9764 Tipton & Wednesbury (Con) 6.1465 Rushcliffe (Con) 6.1866 Norwich North (Con) 6.3167 Spen Valley (Con) 6.4268 Glasgow South West (SNP) 6.4369 Milton Keynes North (Con) 6.5570 Worcester (Con) 6.6471 Glasgow North (SNP) 6.7272 Rother Valley (Con) 6.7473 Southport (Con) 6.8074 Ashfield (Con) 6.8175 Shrewsbury (Con) 6.9676 Worthing East & Shoreham (Con) 7.0377 Caerfyrddin (Con) 7.0478 Penistone & Stocksbridge (Con) 7.2879 Barrow & Furness (Con) 7.4380 Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid Cymru) 7.4981 Colne Valley (Con) 7.5082 Filton & Bradley Stoke (Con) 7.6183 Glasgow East (SNP) 7.6284 Uxbridge & South Ruislip (Con) 7.8285 Pembrokeshire Mid & South (Con) 7.8486 Thanet East (Con) 7.9187 Corby & East Northamptonshire (Con) 8.0588 Leeds South West & Morley (Con) 8.1689 Hamilton & Clyde Valley (SNP) 8.1890 Bishop Auckland (Con) 8.1991 Chelsea & Fulham (Con) 8.2192 Crawley (Con) 8.3893 Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP) 8.4294 Harrow East (Con) 8.5995 South Ribble (Con) 8.6596 Newcastle-under-Lyme (Con) 8.7397 Bournemouth East (Con) 8.9498 Stevenage (Con) 8.9899 Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke (SNP) 9.23100 Glasgow South (SNP) 9.42101 Camborne & Redruth (Con) 9.55102 Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West (SNP) 9.64103 Stoke-on-Trent North (Con) 9.65104 Gloucester (Con) 9.67105 Finchley & Golders Green (Con) 9.72106 York Outer (Con) 9.85107 Rossendale & Darwen (Con) 9.85108 Wolverhampton North East (Con) 9.92109 Macclesfield (Con) 9.94110 Blackpool North & Fleetwood (Con) 10.11111 Monmouthshire (Con) 10.25112 Glasgow West (SNP) 10.29113 Scarborough & Whitby (Con) 10.33114 Dunfermline & Dollar (SNP) 10.36115 Welwyn Hatfield (Con) 10.40116 Hitchin (Con) 10.42117 Dunbartonshire West (SNP) 10.56118 Bolton West (Con) 10.65119 Scunthorpe (Con) 10.72120 Erewash (Con) 10.86121 Bournemouth West (Con) 10.86122 Carlisle (Con) 11.02123 Edinburgh North & Leith (SNP) 11.03124 Earley & Woodley (Con) 11.05125 Glenrothes & Mid Fife (SNP) 11.06126 Colchester (Con) 11.14127 Stockton West (Con) 11.29128 Edinburgh East & Musselburgh (SNP) 11.29129 Hexham (Con) 11.29130 Ossett & Denby Dale (Con) 11.34131 Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland (Con) 11.44132 Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Plaid Cymru) 11.45133 Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme (Con) 11.70134 Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes (Con) 11.71135 Pendle & Clitheroe (Con) 11.92136 Paisley & Renfrewshire South (SNP) 11.96137 Basingstoke (Con) 12.02138 Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP) 12.11139 Dover & Deal (Con) 12.13140 Penrith & Solway (Con) 12.33141 Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch (SNP) 12.45142 Telford (Con) 12.52143 Paisley & Renfrewshire North (SNP) 12.56144 Livingston (SNP) 12.61145 Buckingham & Bletchley (Con) 12.68146 East Kilbride & Strathaven (SNP) 12.74147 Morecambe & Lunesdale (Con) 12.75148 Derbyshire North East (Con) 13.04149 Rugby (Con) 13.10150 Croydon South (Con) 13.17

– Liberal Democrat targets

1 Carshalton & Wallington (Con) 0.64 percentage points2 Fife North East (SNP) 0.703 Wimbledon (Con) 0.744 Sheffield Hallam (Lab) 0.925 Cambridgeshire South (Con) 1.256 Cheltenham (Con) 1.257 Dunbartonshire Mid (SNP) 1.708 Cheadle (Con) 2.099 Eastbourne (Con) 2.1110 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP) 2.6411 Esher & Walton (Con) 2.6812 Guildford (Con) 2.9613 Lewes (Con) 3.7114 Hazel Grove (Con) 4.1815 Westmorland & Lonsdale (Con) 4.7416 St Ives (Con) 4.8517 Finchley & Golders Green (Con) 5.9818 Cities of London & Westminster (Con) 6.0519 Winchester (Con) 7.0820 Taunton & Wellington (Con) 7.8421 Harrogate & Knaresborough (Con) 7.9122 Cambridge (Lab) 8.1423 Sutton & Cheam (Con) 8.2724 Woking (Con) 8.6025 Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe (Con) 8.7026 Eastleigh (Con) 8.7227 Didcot & Wantage (Con) 9.2228 Bermondsey & Old Southwark (Lab) 9.2829 Dorking & Horley (Con) 9.5230 Godalming & Ash (Con) 9.6331 Dorset West (Con) 10.7132 Chelsea & Fulham (Con) 10.8233 Henley & Thame (Con) 11.0534 Newbury (Con) 11.2435 Wokingham (Con) 11.5936 Hitchin (Con) 11.6737 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 11.6838 St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.2439 Ely & East Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.3540 Devon South (Con) 12.6641 Wells & Mendip Hills (Con) 12.6642 Sussex Mid (Con) 12.9043 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 12.9244 Thornbury & Yate (Con) 12.9645 Chippenham (Con) 13.0646 Farnham & Bordon (Con) 13.2747 Devon North (Con) 13.3348 Glastonbury & Somerton (Con) 13.3349 Tunbridge Wells (Con) 13.4050 Earley & Woodley (Con) 13.4851 Harpenden & Berkhamsted (Con) 13.5052 Yeovil (Con) 13.5253 Ceredigion Preseli (PC) 13.6354 Bicester & Woodstock (Con) 13.6655 Norfolk North (Con) 14.0556 Chelmsford (Con) 14.3257 Cornwall North (Con) 14.5958 Epsom & Ewell (Con) 14.6859 Romsey & Southampton North (Con) 14.8560 Aylesbury (Con) 14.9061 Surrey Heath (Con) 14.9262 Durham (Lab) 14.9263 Dorset Mid & North Poole (Con) 15.0964 Cotswolds South (Con) 15.1365 Runnymede & Weybridge (Con) 15.2666 Melksham & Devizes (Con) 15.2767 York Outer (Con) 15.4868 Horsham (Con) 15.5469 Edinburgh North & Leith (SNP) 15.6470 Hornsey & Friern Barnet (Lab) 15.8171 Banbury (Con) 15.8172 Witney (Con) 16.0573 Newton Abbot (Con) 16.6574 Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire (SNP) 16.7875 Maidenhead (Con) 16.7976 Chesham & Amersham (Con) 16.9677 Brentford & Isleworth (Lab) 17.0078 Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP) 17.3979 Torbay (Con) 17.4180 Ealing Central & Acton (Lab) 17.4781 East Grinstead & Uckfield (Con) 17.7382 Newcastle upon Tyne North (Lab) 17.7583 Stratford-on-Avon (Con) 17.7684 Clapham & Brixton Hill (Lab) 17.7885 Salisbury (Con) 17.8786 Dunfermline & Dollar (SNP) 17.9387 Reigate (Con) 17.9788 Tewkesbury (Con) 18.0589 Kensington & Bayswater (Lab) 18.1690 Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr (Con) 18.4391 Hammersmith & Chiswick (Lab) 18.4592 Somerset North (Con) 18.4593 Windsor (Con) 18.5894 Hampshire East (Con) 18.6495 Islington South & Finsbury (Lab) 18.6696 Harborough, Oadby & Wigston (Con) 18.7697 Buckingham & Bletchley (Con) 18.8198 Colchester (Con) 18.8399 Morecambe & Lunesdale (Con) 19.00100 Edinburgh South (Lab) 19.01

– Conservative targets

1 Warrington South (Lab) 0.06 percentage points2 Coventry North West (Lab) 0.223 Kensington & Bayswater (Lab) 0.364 Alyn & Deeside (Lab) 0.395 Wirral West (Lab) 0.416 Beckenham & Penge (Lab) 0.527 Heywood & Middleton North (Lab) 0.808 Dagenham & Rainham (Lab) 0.809 Coventry South (Lab) 0.8610 Warwick & Leamington (Lab) 1.1211 Bedford (Lab) 1.1912 Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley (Lab) 1.3113 Doncaster Central (Lab) 1.3814 Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid Cymru) 1.4015 Rawmarsh & Conisbrough (Lab) 1.5516 Chesterfield (Lab) 1.6117 Oldham East & Saddleworth (Lab) 1.6218 Warrington North (Lab) 1.6319 Canterbury (Lab) 1.8920 Halifax (Lab) 1.9921 Newport West & Islwyn (Lab) 2.0622 Perth & Kinross-shire (SNP) 2.0923 Cramlington & Killingworth (Lab) 2.2424 Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (SNP) 2.5025 Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey (SNP) 2.5826 Doncaster North (Lab) 2.5827 Nottingham North & Kimberley (Lab) 2.8928 Gower (Lab) 2.9329 Leeds East (Lab) 3.0630 Leeds West & Pudsey (Lab) 3.0931 Wolverhampton South East (Lab) 3.1032 Tynemouth (Lab) 3.2633 Bradford South (Lab) 3.3434 Croydon East (Lab) 3.3735 Sunderland Central (Lab) 3.4136 Stalybridge & Hyde (Lab) 3.4837 Lothian East (SNP) 3.6638 Hull East (Lab) 3.6739 Houghton & Sunderland South (Lab) 3.7340 Rotherham (Lab) 3.7941 Putney (Lab) 3.9842 Birmingham Erdington (Lab) 3.9843 Worsley & Eccles (Lab) 4.0044 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 4.0645 Llanelli (Lab) 4.3246 Hartlepool (Lab) 4.3847 Durham, City of (Lab) 4.5448 Blaydon & Consett (Lab) 4.5649 Stockton North (Lab) 4.6150 Durham North (Lab) 4.63

– Green targets

1 Bristol Central (Lab) 16.23 percentage points2 Isle of Wight West (Con) 19.303 Edinburgh North & Leith (SNP) 20.264 Dunfermline & Dollar (SNP) 21.355 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 21.616 Isle of Wight East (Con) 21.707 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 21.998 Livingston (SNP) 22.349 Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP) 22.4610 East Kilbride & Strathaven (SNP) 22.48

– SNP targets

1 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (Con) 0.79 percentage points2 Dumfries & Galloway (Con) 1.483 Aberdeenshire North & Moray East (Con) 2.614 Edinburgh West (Lib Dems) 2.625 Gordon & Buchan (Con) 3.396 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 4.267 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Con) 4.848 Orkney & Shetland (Lib Dems) 5.419 Edinburgh South (Lab) 10.18

– Plaid Cymru targets

1 Ynys Mon (Con) 3.48 percentage points2 Caerfyrddin (Con) 4.253 Llanelli (Lab) 9.534 Caerphilly (Lab) 14.595 Pontypridd (Lab) 17.876 Neath & Swansea East (Lab) 19.707 Cardiff West (Lab) 21.348 Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare (Lab) 21.789 Rhondda & Ogmore (Lab) 21.9310 Aberafan Maesteg (Lab) 21.97

– Reform UK targets

(Based on the notional 2019 performance of the Brexit Party, as Reform UK was then called)

1 Barnsley North (Lab) 4.50 percentage points2 Hartlepool (Lab) 5.923 Barnsley South (Lab) 6.294 Doncaster North (Lab) 12.825 Easington (Lab) 14.316 South Shields (Lab) 14.707 Rotherham (Lab) 16.078 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 16.199 Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney (Lab) 16.2010 Caerphilly (Lab) 16.85