YouGov: Labour on track for historic 422-seat win as Tories predicted to lose key seats

Labour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.

Under this prediction, today, Labour would enjoy a 194-seat majority, larger than the one achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 general election.

The forecast predicted the Conservatives would lose 223 seats and be left with just 140. That would be the worst loss for the Tories in well over 100 years, since then-party leader Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in 1906.

The YouGov survery suggested several prominent Tory MPs and cabinet ministers could lose their seats next month, including defence secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.

YouGov’s MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) prediction combines polling data from over 58,000 individuals, with local factors and voter characteristics to estimate election outcomes on a constituency level.

Labour are set to secure key gains from historic Tory seats, particularly in the North of England. Constituencies thought to be going from blue to red include Leeds North West, Bury North and Bury South.

The Tories are not projected to win a single new seat. In addition, they may lose all but four seats in London while Labour take 65.

The Green Party could win one new seat in Bristol Central, with a projected 13 point lead over Labour, for co-leader Carla Denyer.

More than 130 of 650 seats are a ‘toss-up’ according to YouGov’s analysis, with no candidate projected to win more than a 5 per cent majority. This means that 20 per cent of seats are set to be a very tight race.

The Lib Dems, at 11 per cent in the polls, are projected to win 48 seats; five times more than the party won in 2019. The safest Lib Dem gains include Harrogate and Knaresborough, Cheadle, and Lewes, all of which were previously Tory seats.

Meanwhile right-wing challenger party Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, despite over 300 candidates standing across the UK. The party is currently polling at 12 per cent, according to latest Techne polls.

However, today’s shock announcement that Nigel Farage will take over as Reform leader could have an impact on whether the party wins seats on election day. Mr Farage remains insistent that Reform will win seats despite projections, adding: “I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party. I genuinely do.”

Farage is running as an MP for Clacton, Essex, where YouGov’s estimate show that the Tories are estimated to win 42 per cent of votes, with Labour in second at 27 per cent and Reform at 19 per cent.

This article was amended on 6 June 2024. It previously inaccurately stated that Arthur Balfour had been prime minister at the time of the 1906 general election, but he had resigned from the role prior to the election being called.