Will a raft of free services win back the disaffected?

The 1 May poll looks set to be a referendum on the Labour-Lib Dem coalition, and on devolution itself

As political parties gear up for an election in Wales, each of them knows that 1 May could turn into a referendum not just on the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition government in Cardiff, but also on the success of the devolution project itself.

For, unlike the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly did not come into the world with near-universal approval. The 1997 referendum attracted a turn-out of barely 50 per cent and the "yes" vote squeaked home by a thin 6,721 majority.

Ron Davies, the former Welsh secretary and "father of devolution", was forced to quit as Labour's candidate for First Secretary even before the first elections in 1999. A divisive contest ensued to replace him, with Alun Michael, aided by Peter Hain, pitched against Rhodri Morgan for the job. At the height of Millbank control freakery, Mr Michael, backed by Downing Street, edged out the popular Mr Morgan.

Labour suffered badly at the inaugural elections, based on a low turn-out of just 45.9 per cent and Plaid Cymru shocked many by winning once-solid heartlands such as Rhondda as it won 17 seats. With Labour on 28, the Tories on 9 and Liberal Democrats on six, Mr Michael had to lead a minority administration and within a year caved in to the inevitable. Within months of taking over as First Secretary, Mr Morgan agreed to a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and some semblance of stability has followed ever since.

Mr Morgan will be hoping that his personal popularity can help persuade the voters that Labour has delivered real change since 1999. The Assembly has implemented free local bus travel for pensioners, learning grants to offset the cost of university tuition fees, the abolition of compulsory school tests for seven-year-olds, a freeze on prescription charges and a Children's Commissioner for Wales.

Backed enthusiastically by Mr Hain, his former enemy who is now Welsh Secretary, Mr Morgan is looking to win an outright majority this time by putting "clear red water" between Welsh Labour and New Labour based in London. Headline-grabbing policies such as free prescriptions, free travel for 16 to 18-year-olds, and free breakfasts in primary schools may indeed win back the disaffected. Care home charges for the disabled will also be scrapped.

As in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats will claim that it is their presence that has ensured Labour has offered a distinctive agenda from the Government in Westminster.

The Welsh Nationalists face a difficult task holding on to their gains of four years ago but are optimistic the Government's troubles over Iraq and its failure to deliver on public services will deter many natural Labour supporters. The party has gone to great lengths to distance itself from independence, promising only a review of the constitution should it win power.

The Conservatives won only one constituency seat at the last election, although the party also gained eight seats via the regional lists system.

With just over a week to go, however, it is Rod Richards, a former Welsh Tory leader, who has put a bit of zest into the campaign. In a typically maverick outburst, Mr Richards said he was missing the Assembly "like a migraine" and voters found it irrelevant and boring. He took a swipe at all the main parties and said that voters could not distinguish between them.