Voters of Trafford ponder sending an historic rebuff to second-class Labour

Susan Fildes, the young leader of Trafford council's Conservative group in south Manchester, treasures a mug that commemorates one of her party's most fondly remembered local knees-ups: the annual Olde English Nighte at Urmston, where the sole object was to consume as much beer and black pudding as possible before collapsing.

Susan Fildes, the young leader of Trafford council's Conservative group in south Manchester, treasures a mug that commemorates one of her party's most fondly remembered local knees-ups: the annual Olde English Nighte at Urmston, where the sole object was to consume as much beer and black pudding as possible before collapsing.

"So what did your wives think of it?" she once asked the venerable old Tory councillor who bequeathed her the mug. "They weren't invited," he replied - and it is hard to resist the impression that it stays on the shelf to satisfy her that at least some things in the party have changed for the better over the past seven years.

If Mrs Fildes needed further encouragement, it arrives today with a local election denouement that sees the Conservatives poised to take over Trafford after a decade of Labour control. Victory will be of huge importance to the Tories, who have only ever controlled one other metropolitan district (Solihull) and made Trafford their top local election target this year.

With the Liberal Democrats only a small force in this particular election battle (their three councillors are confined to one ward), the BNP's three candidates no-hopers and other minority parties few and far between, the election constitutes one of today's purest head-to-head fights between Labour and Conservatives.

The Tories have rolled out their co-chairman, Liam Fox, and deputy party leader Michael Ancram over the past few weeks in a district that encompasses a large, thin, slice of south Manchester - from affluent Bowden and Hale in the south to the more down-at-heel Urmston on the city fringe - and includes the Old Trafford football and cricket grounds. Labour has received Constitutional Affairs minister Lord Falconer and considered the Prime Minister's recent visit to nearby Wythenshawe Hospital a "show of support."

But the Conservatives hopes have been helped most by the Boundary Commission's almost unprecedented decision last year to reject Labour's plans for a reorganisation of the district's wards and, instead, put in place plans to abolish a ward in the party's heartland of Stretford and create one in wealthy, Tory-dominated, Hale.

In an election year, it has made a two-seat Labour majority look perilous and forced council and Labour group leader Dave Acton, whose ward boundaries were reorganised, to swap to the safer Gorse Hill seat.

Even the prospect of an all-postal ballot - potentially an aid to Labour, whose supporters are less likely to turn out to vote - was failing to boost the party's efforts yesterday. By activists' reckoning, thousands of postal ballot papers had still not arrived by lunchtime and they must now rely on locals casting votes at libraries, which will remain open until about 8pm this evening to receive them.

In the heat of Gorse Hill, Mr Acton was still knocking on doors at 5pm - a good seven hours after the last posting time for ballot papers. "We're fighting this campaign on our record," he said. "We've had control since 1995 and in that time the schools, parks, public buildings and town centres have all been transformed. The voters know that."

But back in the Urmston ward, which he has just vacated, the ballot mix-ups were contributing most to an immutable sense of irritation with Labour. "I can't be doing with all this post vote change," said Pauline Landon-Harrison, 71, who was evidently oblivious to the fact that all-postal ballots have been running here for the past three years and had nothing to do with the local party. "The Labour lot have stopped the polling stations and look what's happened: it's a shambles."

Holes were also appearing in Mr Acton's theory that local issues exercised his electorate. In Urmston's shopping centre Gordon Elder, 71, confessed that the council's insistence on raising municipal golf club fees had wounded him (they're up £28) and he remains convinced capital reserves of £7m have been frittered away by Labour over the past decade. But Iraq was the subject most on his mind. "He [Blair] is a bloody idiot following another bloody idiot [Bush]," Mr Elder said.

Canvassing in the safer lanes of residential Altrincham, Mrs Fildes could thank her lucky stars that the resurgent UK Independence Party (UKIP) was confined to the European elections. "I've voted for you in the locals and UKIP in the European," said one doostep voter, who declined to be named.

For her part, Mrs Fildes is bothered enough about Britain's identity to carry a union flag sticker on her car but does not advocate withdrawal from the EU. But any potential contradictions are absolved by the Tory trump card: its support of the last vestiges of Britain's 11-plus and grammar school system, which still exists here.

Mrs Fildes, 36, was not even a party activist eight or so years ago when she began campaigning to preserve the system, which she coveted for her three children. She joined the Conservatives soon afterwards, a few years before Labour sought to capitalise on new legislation that permitted referenda on the abolition of grammar schools if 25 per cent of parents (in Trafford, 8,000 people) were in favour. Labour's efforts miserably failed - just 2,000 wanted a vote - and now the Conservatives can claim to be the grammar school party.

"It's one of the most prominent issues," said Mrs Fildes, who lists crime and fear of crime as the top of people's issues, closely followed by Altrincham's new car parking charges, which are piling new pressure on retailers whose tired-looking town is wilting in the face of the nearby Trafford Centre.

Early analysis of how voters have cast their postal votes suggested, however, that Trafford's politicians need as many burning issues as they can find. The turnout here may be as low as 37 per cent.

Barbara Daly, 54, retired

"It might sound funny for somebody like me to say it, but I've gone Conservative rather than Labour this time. (I got my postal vote on Monday.) It's not considered a rotten thing to do around here and I think it's time for a bit of a change. I don't know who is in control, or who the local MP is, but a change would be good."

Deborah Robinson, 35

"I can't say I'm that bothered about any of this election stuff and there's nothing to choose between the parties; I'm not even sure who's in charge at present. It might be Labour for me, although I agree with the grammar schools being around here and all this protesting about getting rid of them wasn't on."

Dave Shey, 51, self-employed shares trader"Preserving the local grammar schoolsystem is the only issue for me in this election. I went through the system of schooling, so are my [four] children and the Conservatives' policy of preventing the system changing means that they should win this election.They will get my vote, definitely."

Gordon Elder, 71, retired design engineer

"I would not vote Tory nationally, but I have locally. I think they spend the money better around here and my grandson is going through the grammar school system. I like thediscipline they have; it's great. And there's Iraq. He [Blair] is a bloody idiot and he hasfollowed another bloody idiot [Bush]."

Lynda Campbell, 36, housewife

"I've not received my postal vote stuff. If I do, I'd go Labour ­ but I'm not seeing the policies from anyone to help people like me. It's all 'let's help women get back to work' but what about those of us who want to raise our kids at home? I went through the comprehensive system and I think it's right to make it equal for all kids."

Paul Goodman, 35, site worker

"All the parties just turn me off ­ I can't getinterested in the election and I can't even tell you if I've got the (postal) ballot papers. Labour is probably more my preference but they don't get their messages across in a way which is worth me sitting up and taking interest. It's a lot of hot air if you ask me."