'Prepare for the worst': UK should prepare for winter with no vaccine, scientist warns MPs

'This whole epidemic has relied too heavily on assumptions that have turned out not to be true,' says Prof John Bell

The UK must "prepare for the worst" this winter rather than relying on the development of a coronavirus vaccine, a senior scientist has warned.

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, told MPs that planning for the pandemic had relied "too heavily on assumptions" and it was better to prepare to face the colder months without banking on a breakthrough by scientists hunting for a vaccination.

At a hearing of the science and technology committee, Tory chairman Greg Clark asked if the country should be preparing for the winter without a coronavirus vaccine, or if one might be ready in time.

Sir John said: "This whole epidemic has relied too heavily on assumptions that have turned out not to be true.

"So, my strong advice is be prepared for the worst."

He also said medics were concerned there will be "pandemonium in A&E departments" if the UK experiences a serious flu season alongside coronavirus this winter.

Sir John called for greater investment into infrastructure around manufacturing vaccines as it was "pretty lamentable" at the beginning of the pandemic.

He also urged ministers not to rely on vaccines imported from the US because "you will not get it until a long way down the line".

Kate Bingham, chair of government vaccine taskforce, said she was "optimistic" a vaccine would be found but warned that "in the near term we may have to satisfy ourselves with a vaccine that reduces the severity of the disease" - rather than preventing people from being infected with Covid-19.

She also said a vaccine was likely to come "early next year", depending on the success of trials at Oxford University which have started testing on humans.

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford, said she hoped their vaccine might be ready sooner but she would not set a timeframe on when it could be available.

Prof Gilbert said the scientists were testing 4,000 people in Brazil and 2,000 in South Africa, both areas of high transmission compared to the UK where social distancing has reduced the infection rates.

MPs were told it may need to be administered in multiple doses, such as with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine or hepatitis B jab.

Sir John also told the committee that mass testing was vital to halt the spread of coronavirus, saying ONS figures suggesting 70 per cent of people were asymptomatic were "robust".

He said he had seen new test technologies in recent days which produce results in minutes, allowing people to test themselves and "even kids before they go off to a rave".

The senior scientist also said that “saturation testing” in hospitals should be an absolute requirement.

Asked why other countries had been more successful in combating the virus, Sir John said some countries had been "lucky" and there was no strong scientific evidence as to why some countries had fared better.