Turn-out the key issue as insecurity grips electorate

When Scotland goes to the polls today, the winner will be of almost secondary importance to the number of people who vote.

In only the second election since devolution established the Holyrood parliament in 1999, the turn-out and number of protest votes will speak volumes as to how seriously the people take their government and the success, or failures, of the past four years.

If the polls – which predict a turn-out of less than 48 per cent, compared with 59 per cent in 1999 – are correct, it will send the message that many of the electorate are disillusioned.

Since Scotland's first 129 MSPs were swept into power in a mood of euphoria for the first Scottish Parliament in three centuries, they have spent 1,361 hours and 45 minutes in the debating chamber. In that time they have passed 62 Bills, including free health care for the elderly, abolition of up-front tuition fees, reintroduction of student grants, expansion of nursery education, freedom of access to the countryside and land reform, a ban on fox hunting with hounds and the repeal of Section 28, which had prevented teachers from explaining homosexuality.

Peter Lynch, lecturer in politics at Stirling University, said: "Even the things they haven't done are significant. The main areas of Blairite modernisation, which are appealing to Middle England and drawing in the private sector, are not anywhere near policies in Scotland. There's not going to be private health care in the NHS or foundation hospitals in Scotland. There won't be any reform of the comprehensive school system or top-up fees in higher education.

"Devolution is all about choices and it's working. But it is also creating a gulf between Labour governments in England and Scotland, which will have serious consequences in the next 10 years."

Despite Scotland's refusal to abandon old Labour policies, there is a prevailing mood of disappointment among an electorate embarrassed by the saga of the new parliament building – which was supposed to cost £40m but is now likely to be nearer £400m – and the circumstances that have led to the country having three First Ministers in four years.

In 1999, 70 per cent of the population thought devolution would give Scots a stronger voice within the UK, while 64 per cent believed it would give the ordinary person more say in how they were governed.

Now only 39 per cent believe a stronger UK voice has been found and just 31 per cent think the ordinary voter has any control over government.

Norrie MacQueen, head of politics at Dundee University, said: "There is a culture of political insecurity in Scotland, which will take maybe three or four elections ... to disappear. People still have at the back of their minds that Holyrood is some sort of local government without the pool of talent to run the country effectively.

"Ironically, the only way to beat that insecurity is for the Scottish Parliament to be seen as a success in benefiting the lives of ordinary people; and that was always going to take more than four years."