Nigel Farage has scared the Tories into abandoning the centre for the hard right

News analysis: Nigel Farage has shaped this Tory leadership contest more than any of the candidates

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage appears to have scared the Conservative Party (PA Wire)

One man has shaped the result of this leadership election - and he was not even running to replace Rishi Sunak.

The decision to choose Kemi Badenoch versus Robert Jenrick for the final two is proof, if any was needed, that Nigel Farage has scared the Tory party.

The Reform UK leader, and how to deal with him, became the main question for all the candidates in this lengthy four-month election to the point of irritation.

It has often been claimed there is no more duplicitous electorate than Tory MPs in a leadership contest, and once again they have gone to type.

Last night the final remaining centrist James Cleverly was eight votes ahead of his nearest rival, and now he is out with fewer votes than he had before.

From left to right: Tory MPs chose the two right-wing alternatives from Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat (PA Wire)

What appears to have happened is that Team Jenrick, in a bid to outdo Ms Badenoch, lent too many votes to Mr Cleverly in the penultimate round with MPs. Panicking their man might be out, they called those votes back in.

There is a theory that Mr Cleverly tried to be a bit too clever by lending votes back to Mr Jenrick in the hope of keeping Ms Badenoch out.

There had been some suspicion though about the strength of support for Mr Cleverly, because only 16 of the MPs voting for the former foreign secretary had publicly declared.

But whatever game-playing took place, what is clear is that Tory MPs have made a cold calculation that the candidate chosen by Tory members needs to be from the right of the party.

This means members will now get to pick from the trans-sceptic culture warrior Ms Badenoch, and Mr Jenrick, a man who wants to cancel Britain’s commitment to the European Convention of Human Rights.

Mr Jenrick in particular has made a virtue of claiming he wants to retire Mr Farage.

But both are a reaction to an election where more Tory voters deserted them for Reform that went to the Lib Dems and Labour put together.

The reason prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has a massive majority is because the right-wing vote split or stayed at home. Labour actually won with fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got when Boris Johnson hammered him.

Tory MPs now must hope one of these two hard-right candidates will help finish off Mr Farage.

It may however be a forlorn hope. One thing which has proven to be true over the years is that it is almost impossible to out Mr Farage - and that elections are won from the centre ground.

That centre ground has now been completely ceded to Labour and Sir Keir.