Theresa May has offered to quit. What happens next - at No 10 and for Brexit?

The Independent looks at possible scenarios following PM's decision to step down should her Brexit deal pass Commons

Theresa May has told Conservative MPs at a closed meeting that she will step aside as prime minister after she has delivered Brexit.

Here The Independent takes a look at possible scenarios following PM’s announcement to the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers.

Can Theresa May’s deal be voted on again, and if so when?

Downing Street intends to bring back the twice-defeated deal to the House of Commons in the coming days and speculation is rife the prime minister has Friday pencilled in for another monumental day in Westminster.

Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay revealed on Wednesday the government would table a motion to enable the Commons to sit on Friday – as MPs had previously been told it was a non-sitting day, meaning they would typically spend the day in their constituencies.

But one significant obstacle remains: John Bercow. The Commons speaker reiterated his warning on Wednesday that substantial changes are required before he can permit the government to bring a third “meaningful vote” on the deal.

Is it a no-brainier that she now gets her deal approved?

No. Only two months’ ago, the prime minister faced the biggest parliamentary defeat in British political history over her Brexit deal – and the fourth most crushing rejection when she brought it back a second time in February.

Her resignation promise, however, will inevitably help to bring down the sheer number of Conservative MPs opposed to the deal.

In the last few hours, leading Brexiteers such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and the former foreign secretary Boris Johnson have indicated they will back the UK-EU agreement. Outside the 1922 committee after Ms May announced her decision to resign should her deal pass the Commons, Brexiteer Pauline Latham also said she would now vote for the deal.

But even with significant moves from Tory MPs, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who Ms May relies on for her working majority in the Commons, have said they will not back the deal.

What if Theresa May’s Brexit deal goes through?

Brexit will go ahead on 22 May – after EU leaders agreed a short extension to the negotiation period last week. Expect options such as a second referendum to be off the table under this scenario, and given Ms May’s remarks to the Conservative Party she will have to resign as prime minister.

When would the PM most likely stand down?

While she did not provide colleagues with a firm deadline for her departure, if her deal passes the Commons it is highly probably she will remain in Downing Street at least until the revised date of Britain’s departure from the EU, on 22 May.

Expect her to outline the timetable for her resignation at this point, and aim to use the summer months for a Conservative leadership contest so that a new leader is in place by September – ahead of the party’s annual conference in Manchester.

What would have to happen in Brussels if the deal passes?

Not a great deal. If the Brexit agreement receives MPs’s backing by Friday, the EU leaders have already set out the timetable for the UK’s official departure in two months time.

If the deal is agreed next week, Brussels will have to rethink the extension. It was granted to the prime minister on the proviso she passes the deal by Friday 29 March.

Any deal passed by MPs in the UK will also have to be ratified by MEPs in the European parliament before 22 May.

Does her resignation mean the second half of Brexit will be led by a staunch Brexiteer?

The prime minister has made clear she will not be in Downing Street for the next phase of the Brexit negotiations: the future relationship. Given that Brexiteers are now swinging behind the deal, they certainly seem to be under the impression phase two will led by one from their own tribe.

It is a good bet given the Brexiteer base of the Tory party and that the party’s rules dictate the final round of the contest is decided by Conservative members, not just MPs.

But it is certainly not inevitable the next resident in Downing Street will be a staunch Brexiteer.

At the last leadership contest Ms May, who voted Remain, and Andrea Leadsom, a prominent Leave campaigner, made it through to the final two, but Ms Leadsom dropped out meaning there was no vote among the Conservative Party membership.

If May has offered to quit, hasn’t that ended her career even if the deal doesn’t pass?

In the eyes of many Conservative MPs her premiership has had an expiry date ever since her failed snap general election gamble in 2017 after losing the party’s majority.

But given her comments at the 1922 committee – seemingly pinning her resignation on passing a deal – it appears Ms May will attempt to cling on until she somehow manages to receive parliamentary backing for a Brexit deal.

Under Conservative Party rules the prime minister cannot be forced out of office until at least December 2019 – a year after she won a no confidence vote in her leadership among the party’s MPs.

What if May doesn’t get her deal through the Commons?

Uncertainty prevails, and all options are on the table in this scenario. Given the unprecedented scale of previous defeats her deal has faced, it still remains highly likely the prime minister’s deal will be rejected once more.

The results of Wednesday evening’s indicative votes in the House of Commons provide an indication of how things might proceed.

Of the votes, the closest was on the motion put forward by the senior Conservative Ken Clarke, demanding the government negotiate a comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU. This was rejected by 272-264 votes.

MPs also rejected an attempt by MPs to seek a public vote before the ratification of any Brexit deal – by 295 votes to 268 – but campaigners said it showed growing support for the “confirmatory public vote”.

Given the scale of opposition towards a no-deal scenario among MPs, expect a long extension to the Article 50 negotiating period to be requested – forcing the UK to participate in European Parliament elections towards the end of May.

Could she promise to back a second referendum on her deal to ensure it gets over the line?

Theoretically, the prime minister could pursue a public vote on her deal – a move that will probably convince a proportion of Labour MPs to back her plans. But in reality it is almost certain Ms May will not go down this path, unless she is forced to do so by the will of the Commons.

The prime minister has consistently expressed her opposition to a fresh public vote, and given she is prepared to sacrifice her premiership to get her Brexit deal over the line, it doesn’t appear she is prepared to sacrifice Brexit itself.