Theresa May to hold crunch talks as pollster warns of heavy losses in council elections
Exclusive: Elections expert Sir John Curtice says the Tories are 'losing ground very heavily' in London, where they may surrender more than half of their councils in May
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Your support makes all the difference.Theresa May will hold talks with her top team on how to head off major losses in the upcoming local elections, as one of the country’s top pollsters warned Brexit could hit Tory electoral chances.
Elections expert Sir John Curtice, who predicted last year’s shock election result, said the Conservatives could lose more than half of their London boroughs in the May elections, which are being fought mostly in Labour heartlands or Remain-voting areas like the capital.
Cabinet ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss how to avoid a poor showing at the polls, The Independent understands, in a sign of mounting fears that a disastrous set of results could cost Ms May her job.
It comes amid growing disillusionment over the Prime Minister’s leadership among backbenchers after a chaotic reshuffle and continued shifts on Brexit policy, with reports that a string of MPs are gearing up to topple her.
The Tories could lose at least half of their London boroughs, as its young population and pro-European views leave it vulnerable to Labour, Sir John told The Independent.
The veteran psephologist, who is a senior fellow of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said: “What we do know is the Conservative Party lost ground among Remain voters in June of last year and gained ground among Leave voters.
“Given that the areas that are voting in May are predominantly urban England, including London, the Tories are probably going to find it very difficult in London because they are losing ground very heavily in the capital and Brexit has pushed that process further.”
The situation presents a political challenge to the Prime Minister as pro-EU sentiment in the eligible seats could give a “misleading impression” of how much difficulty the Tories are in, he said.
Sir John said: “Theresa May’s problem is that most visible elections are in London, which is probably the most difficult place for them to have to defend. That’s her misfortune.
“It’s a picture of two halves. We may find in the less high-profile elections in some of the smaller districts that the Tories actually hang onto what they’ve got, while losing ground in London.
“The political class will tend to focus on London and they may ignore the fact that the Tories are not doing so badly elsewhere. That’s her problem in the differences in the visibility of the contest.”
He added: “It’s in London where the big prizes are, not least because it’s a whole council election everywhere.
“Even if what happens in London replicates what happened in the general election, which of course is a reflection of the Brexit nature of London, then the Tories are potentially going to be in trouble.”
Labour is ramping up the pressure in London, where leader Jeremy Corbyn commands strong support and mayor Sadiq Khan has set his sights on capturing the Tory boroughs of Wandsworth and Barnet.
All of the capital’s 32 boroughs will be up for grabs in the election, as well as metropolitan boroughs such as Birmingham and Manchester, and scores of district council seats across England.
Elections analyst Lord Hayward recently said that the Conservatives face losing Barnet – Margaret Thatcher’s former local borough – to Labour, while the Liberal Democrats look likely to snatch Kingston.
The Conservative peer also warned that the party faced the “fight of their lives” to cling on to three other boroughs which were previously seen as safe, including Westminster and Wandsworth which are seen as models for Tory efficiency.
The last time all the London boroughs were contested in 2014, Labour gained three councils while the Conservatives under David Cameron lost two, leaving them with nine in the city.
The local elections could prove pivotal for Ms May’s leadership amid reports that Graham Brady, the chair of the influential 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, has begged MPs to stop sending him letters calling for a leadership contest.
A no-confidence vote would be triggered if 15 per cent of the parliamentary party – or 48 MPs – express concerns to the 1922 committee about the party leader.
However, the claims were disputed by some senior Conservatives. One MP told The Independent: “We are all a bit surprised. Lots of fed up are people, but surprising if more than 40 have actually put pen to paper.”
Another said: “I really doubt it. More likely a few troublemakers from the Boris camp trying to flush out and encourage doubters. I doubt many have written to Graham Brady.”
Ms May has said she wants to fight the next election, insisting she is “in it for the long term”.
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