Sunak ‘opening the door’ to May election with tax giveaway, says Osborne

Government hoping voters ‘feel effects’ of January’s national insurance cut by spring, says ex-chancellor

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are “opening the door” to a surprise general election in May with their tax giveaway, according to former Conservative chancellor George Osborne.

The Tory grandee said the autumn statement move to bring in a 2p national insurance tax cut in January opened up the possibility of a spring election.

The government is thought to have earmarked the election for autumn of 2024, but Mr Osborne said the calculation may now be shifting, after the chancellor boasting about getting the economy “back on track”.

“I think a lot of people…are going to conclude that it is [more likely we’ll have a May election],” Mr Osborne told his Political Currency podcast.

“[Mr Hunt] has delivered a tax cut and he’s insisted that it’s taking effect from January. In other words, you’re going to start to feel the effects by May.”

The former chancellor said Mr Hunt may wish to push for another further electoral boost by cutting income tax at the Spring Budget in March.

But Mr Osborne warned that the official forecasts point to the economy remaining stagnant for the rest of next year, suggesting the party should not expect its fortunes to magically improve over the summer of 2024.

The senior Tory said Tory strategist Lynton Crosby always insisted that the government “make people feel the benefits of your policies in the many, many months in the run up to that election”.

Sunak and Hunt may consider spring election, says George Osborne (UK PARLIAMENT/AFP via Getty Imag)

The close ally of new foreign secretary David Cameron added: “So I think Jeremy Hunt is opening the door to a May election, even though I think it’s unlikely Rishi Sunak will walk through it.”

Mr Hunt said he did not know whether a spring general election was being considered by Mr Sunak. “That is a decision for the prime minister. We’ve had no discussions on the topic,” he told Sky News.

Asked whether income tax could be cut in March, Mr Hunt said: “What I will do is exactly what I’ve done this time. If it is responsible to do so, if we can do so without increasing borrowing, then of course as a Conservative, I would like to bring down the tax burden.”

Meanwhile, leading economists were scathing about the impact of the tax giveaway – warning that Mr Hunt had left the next government a “ticking time bomb” of austerity cuts to public services.

The OBR warned that Mr Hunt’s plans left £19bn-worth of real-terms spending cuts ahead, warning that it would “present challenges”.

The watchdog said unprotected departments – those outside of health and defence – would face cuts of 4.1 per cent a year in real terms.

The Resolution Foundation said Mr Hunt had left the next government “implausibly large cuts”, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned tax cuts “will not prove to be sustainable”.

And the Institute for Government said the chancellor has “abdicated his responsibility” by failing to address the spending black hole with the tax giveaway.