Scottish independence: 53% of voters back leaving UK if EU membership guaranteed, poll suggests

Salmond row has ‘not made much difference’ to independence support, polling expert Sir John Curtice says

Just over half of Scots would favour leaving the United Kingdom if reentry to the European Union was guaranteed, a poll has suggested.

A survey conducted for the Press and Journal (P&J) found 53 per cent of voters said they would back such an arrangement, against 51 per cent who said "no" when asked if Scotland should become independent.

It is unclear how or if Scotland could rejoin the EU if it became independent. Former EU Council chief Donald Tusk said last year the bloc feels "empathy" towards Scotland rejoining the union.

The polling came as the Scottish Labour and Tory parties kicked off their campaigns for the upcoming Holyrood elections in May, where the SNP is expected to win a majority.

The Survation poll, which spoke to more than 2,000 Scots, was carried out between 11 and 18 March - after the nation’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor, Alex Salmond, gave evidence to an inquiry into sexual harassment complaints against the latter.

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Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the Salmond row appears to have little impact on voting intention, with support for independence and the union "split" down the middle.

He told the P&J: “All the polls are roughly around 50/50 at the moment and there is increasing evidence the whole row has not made much difference.

“Support for the country is split down the middle of the country and has been split down the middle since February.

“It’s clearly lower than it was last year, but it hasn’t really moved during the course of recent weeks.”

He added: “The support for independence amongst people who voted remain goes up from 54 per cent in the standard question to 59 per cent, whereas the leave voters basically aren’t moved.

“So it basically attracts more remain voters, which is already the case, support for independence is quite heavily structured by whether people voted remain or leave in 2016.”

Scotland voted no to independence at the 2014 referendum by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a turnout of 85 per cent.

At the 2016 EU referendum, Scotland voted to remain by a heavy majority of 62 per cent to 38 per cent on a turnout of 67 per cent.

Launching his party's election campaign on Thursday, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar sought to play down talk of a second referendum on independence.

Mr Sarwar, who is hoping to oust the first minister from her Glasgow Southside seat, pledged to put plans for the coronavirus recovery "front and centre" in the election campaign.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross urged pro-UK voters to "rediscover that Better Together spirit", as he kicked off his party's campaign.

In a speech in Aberdeen, Mr Ross called on voters who are against another independence referendum to support his party, regardless of their affiliation, as he pitched the Tories as the only ones able to stop an SNP majority.

The SNP on Wednesday night pledged to offer NHS workers a 4 per cent pay rise. The party's leader Ms Sturgeon on Thursday again pledged to hold another referendum.

Additional reporting by Press Association