What does the reshuffle mean for the future Conservative Party leadership stakes?

After Rishi Sunak’s shakeup, Andrew Grice looks at who is best placed to become the future standard-bearer for the centre-right

Suella Braverman leaving her home in London before Monday’s reshuffle (Reuters)

Rishi Sunak’s unexpectedly dramatic cabinet shake-up has big implications for the unofficial campaign to succeed him as Conservative leader if the party loses next year’s general election.

Suella Braverman, who makes little secret of her ambitions, must now pursue them from the backbenches, while her potential rival James Cleverly will see his credentials tested in her old Home Office brief.

How are Suella Braverman’s leadership prospects affected?

Her allies are putting on a brave face after her sacking. They say her spell as home secretary gave her a much higher profile than when she ran for the leadership last year as attorney general. They hope she can now become the “queen over the water” who inherits the crown. She will have time to woo fellow MPs from the backbenches, while criticising the Sunak government when she chooses. If she secured a place on the shortlist of two chosen by Tory MPs from which party members elect the leader, Braverman could win; the most right-wing candidate usually does. Many Tory members are unrepentant about electing Liz Truss. But there would be a strong “stop Suella” campaign among Tory MPs; her enemies within claim her irresponsible actions as home secretary show she is not fit for the top job.

What about James Cleverly’s chances?

He might have preferred to remain as foreign secretary, especially given the crisis in the Middle East, but must now ensure he is not buried in what is seen as a “political graveyard” at the Home Office. Cleverly is on a good run; he is top of the pops in the monthly survey of Tory party members for the first time.

But he will have an early test in his new job when the Supreme Court rules on whether the government’s plan to send migrants to Rwanda can go ahead. If it is blocked, Cleverly will come under pressure from Tory MPs, led by Braverman, to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights. He is not keen, but is now tasked with delivering the prime minister’s pledge to “stop the boats.”

Cleverly is in a strong position to be the centre-right standard-bearer in the next leadership contest. Indeed, some Tories interpreted Sunak’s decision to give him experience in another big office of state as an attempt to anoint him as his successor.

Who are the other potential runners?

Kemi Badenoch’s allies hoped she would win promotion to home secretary. Critics say she is not making waves in her job as business secretary. She is seen as a more pragmatic right-winger than Braverman and could enjoy wider appeal than her rival.

Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, has run twice for the leadership but her Portsmouth North seat is marginal. Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, is seen as a potential runner but did not impress all Tory MPs with her handling of the “crumbling concrete” crisis. Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and “king of the spreadsheet” showing which candidates Tory MPs support, is ambitious enough to enter the race. Boris Johnson’s dwindling fan club has not given up hope he will return. But critics think his comments, revealed at the Covid inquiry, that he wanted old people to be left to their fate in the pandemic to protect younger people, is the final nail in his political fan club. He would need to find and win a Commons seat to run for the leadership and is unlikely to do so at the next general election.

Who are the promoted rising stars to watch?

Victoria Atkins has a chance to shine in the high-profile health job. But it will be difficult to deliver Mr Sunak’s pledge to reduce NHS waiting lists.

Some Tories believe the real dark horse is Laura Trott, a former special adviser when Lord Cameron was PM, who impressed as pensions minister and has joined the cabinet as chief Treasury secretary. But one insider predicted she would be “the leader after next,” saying Braverman would win the next contest but then be booted out by Tory MPs before she got the chance to fight a general election. If so, the Tory psychodrama of recent years would run for several more episodes.

Could David Cameron come back as Tory leader and prime minister?

Not easily. Some bookmakers have entered the new foreign secretary in their leadership stakes after his surprise return to the cabinet. But to run for the leadership, he would have to give up his peerage and return as an MP. So we can almost certainly rule that one out.