With calls for Boris Johnson to resign – who could be next to lead Britain?

Keir Starmer is the current favourite with the bookies, which is mixed news for the Tories, argues Sean O’Grady

Boris Johnson is clinging to power after receiving a penalty notice for Partygate (PA)

It’s at buzzing times of crisis such as this – with 57 per cent of respondents to a snap YouGov poll believing Boris Johnson should resign as prime minister in the wake of being issued a fine over a Covid-19 lockdown party, and calls from political rivals to go – that there is one place to naturally turn for guidance about the nation’s future. Not to the “senior backbenchers”, the academic historians or anyone else – but rather to the bookies for their guidance about the nation’s future. Who is in line to lead Britain next?

The answer is Keir Starmer, according to Oddschecker (I have no interests to declare, by the way). That’s mixed news for the Tories. It seems to indicate that Boris Johnson is still safe enough in his job that be will in due course lead the Tories into the next election, and at a time of his choosing – but that he will most likely lose it.

Away from Starmer being the favourite to be the next prime minister (about 3/1), the most favoured Tory is now Liz Truss, though at longish odds (6/1). A frontrunner for a while now, she has seen off the self-combusting chancellor Rishi Sunak (11/1 and drifting out), but the war in Ukraine has seen her naturally overshadowed by the prime minister. She’s steady, but maybe losing a bit of momentum.

The sort-of suprise is the continuing rise of Tom Tugendhat, well-known in Westminster, less so in the country. The Sinosceptic chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee has been an MP since 2010, and never held ministerial office. Still, his colleagues seem to like his youth, energy, and hawkish stance on interference by China and Russia. His impassioned pleas after the fall of Kabul last Autumn were particularly impressive. Most valuable of all, he entirely avoided the David Cameron, Theresa May and Johnson governments. More than any other contender, including some jaded faces, Tugendhat can be characterised as a fresh prime minister offering a fresh start.

Interestingly, the next favourite candidate, also has the advantage of being dissociated from Johnson’s premiership. Having been runner-up in the last contest, Jeremy Hunt (8/1) has contended himself with chairing the Health Select Committee and making the occasional wise intervention on Covid, a health recruitment and training plan, and Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. It would be a surprise if he didn’t return to government.

The rest are mostly the usual suspects, with the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, leading the field at about 10/1, ahead of Penny Mordaunt (12/1), Sajid Javid (14/1), Michael Gove and Nadhim Zahawi (both around 20/1). Wallace has impressed his colleagues over Ukraine, making sure that defensive equipment was being supplied before the war – as soon as intelligence correctly detected Vladimir Putin’s decision to go for broke and invade Ukraine. Like Tugendhat, and Mordaunt, Wallace has a background in the armed forces, which is no barrier to success in politics, and looks like he’d get a grip on a rapidly disintegrating government.