Why reshuffle speculation has hit fever pitch

Boris Johnson is reported to be clearing his diary on Thursday to make cabinet appointments, writes John Rentoul

Are you the chap getting lots of emails saying you should be sacked? (PA)

There is usually a certain amount of speculation about a cabinet reshuffle at this time of year. With parliament about to return from recess there is often talk of the prime minister freshening up the top team for the new political season. But such gossip was promoted to front-page news by a half-sentence in an article by Tim Shipman, The Sunday Times’s political editor: “Two Downing Street sources have claimed that the prime minister’s diary is then set to be cleared on Thursday for a possible reshuffle.”

Two other things have added to the ferment. One was the publication of its monthly survey of Conservative Party members by the website Conservative Home. Its league table of net satisfaction ratings for cabinet ministers is keenly watched, not least by cabinet ministers and their staff. The surveys have proved to be quite accurate in predicting how party members will vote in leadership elections, and the findings are so volatile they are almost guaranteed to attract attention.

In the previous month’s poll, the shock was the collapse in the prime minister’s rating; in the latest one, it is Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, who is in the stocks. His rating has gone from plus 73 to plus 6, only just in positive territory, after the embarrassment of being on holiday as Kabul fell. He is now ahead of only Robert Jenrick (housing secretary), Amanda Milling (party chair) and Gavin Williamson (education secretary).

Meanwhile Ben Wallace, the defence secretary who had a good end of war, has gone up from ninth to fourth place in the cabinet ranking, behind Liz Truss (international trade), Rishi Sunak (minister for furlough) and Lord Frost (Brexit minister).

Shipman writes that if Raab is moved, he could be replaced by Truss, Sajid Javid (health) or Michael Gove (Cabinet Office) but I doubt that Boris Johnson wants to move him – he would go only if he admitted he wasn’t interested in being foreign secretary, as some of his critics allege. More definite seems to be Shipman’s report that Williamson is “tipped for demotion” to leader of the House of Commons, the post currently occupied by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

The other thing that happened over the weekend that is relevant to a possible reshuffle was the explosion of anger in the Tory party over plans for a “socialist”, “pledge-breaking” tax rise to pay for the NHS and social care. An anonymous cabinet minister was quoted by The Sunday Telegraph as saying: “Putting up national insurance would be morally, economically and politically wrong.” If that person holds to that view when the cabinet meets on Tuesday – in person for the first time this year – they would have to resign. It may be that they can be persuaded that the plan does not actually amount to “a tax raid on supermarket workers and nurses so the children of Surrey homeowners can receive bigger inheritances”, as they claimed, but it is undoubtedly a breach of a manifesto promise.

On the other hand, it wouldn’t be the first time a minister talked big off the record before meekly following the party line in public.

There is no question that this is an important week for Johnson’s government: the decisions to raise taxes, to pick the triple lock on the state pension and to finally publish a social care plan are all momentous.

But it is just possible that they will not be accompanied by a reshuffle. It is the threat of a reshuffle that gives a prime minister maximum power: the moment a reshuffle has been carried out, that power ebbs. It may be that the speculation still has some time to run and run.