A general election next year? We could end up with two...

A Tory recovery on the back of tax giveaways could complicate Labour’s plans for an emphatic victory, says Sean O’Grady

Jeremy Hunt is shown an Airbus A350 wing being made at an aircraft plant in Broughton near Chester on Thursday (via Reuters)

Reductions in national insurance contributions – the headline tax giveaway announced by Jeremy Hunt – will take effect on January 1. It’s the same day that Tory electoral strategist Isaac Levido is due to move from 10 Downing Street to Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ). Speculation has broken out about the timing of the next general election, although that decision is entirely in the hands of one man…

What do we know about the date of the next general election?

Nothing, except the law dictates it must take place on or before 28 January, 2025. British general elections generally take place either in spring or early summer, or October. Winter elections, which make campaigning harder, are exceptional.

Could the election be held in January 2024?

Sky News political editor Beth Rigby tweeted that Tory workers have been briefed to be “ready for an election from Jan 1st,” from which date Mr Levido will be working for CCHQ full-time. The decision on a date would depend on polls, and the impact of the measures unveiled in the autumn statement.

It seems unlikely polls can be turned round in a couple of months; especially given that the gilt is already peeling off Mr Hunt’s statement, and a cold weather election could keep many voters away from the polls.

What about after the Budget?

This might be optimal. The next one will be in mid-March, and all the signs are that there will be more tax giveaways. So we might expect the long-promised reduction in the basic rate of income tax, from 20 per cent to 19 per cent. Reform of inheritance tax, and perhaps the usual “help for first-time buyers” might also improve public sentiment.

The bookies have slashed the odds on a May election. Betfair Exchange is offering the following odds on when the next election will take place:

January-March 2024: 26/1

April-June 2024: 12/5 (was 16/5 before autumn statement)

July-September: 7/1

October-December: 4/5

2025: 11/1

What would happen if they waited until next autumn?

A decision might hang on the chances of things improving in areas such as the economy, public services and small boat migration; as against the chances of things worsening, including any nasty “black swan” surprises. The latter might include a serious worsening of the situation in the Middle East (pushing oil prices higher), a collapse of the Iranian theocracy, a succession of local authorities going bust, or a global stock market crash.

From Rishi Sunak’s point of view, the economy won’t be booming at any point next year, but inflation should have peaked. Business more widely will be slow, and with little extra money set aside in this week’s autumn statement, public services such as the NHS will be visibly straining. Small boat crossings will pick up again as weather improves.

Could there be two elections in 2024?

If things go better for the Tories, yes. It’s possible that there will be an election resulting in a hung parliament, after which Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the largest party would go to the country for a full mandate before too long. So we could have elections, say, in May and again in October; or a second poll in 2025 or 2026, depending on the electoral arithmetic. There were two general elections within a year in 1910, 1923/24 and 1974; and two within about 18 months in 1950-51 and 1964-66.

What would it mean for the Conservative leadership?

It depends on how bad the defeat is. If the Tories win, Mr Sunak would stay. But a landslide loss might wipe out some of the possible contenders, such as Penny Mordaunt (just as the likes of Michael Portillo and Malcolm Rifkind lost their seats in 1997). James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman have majorities that would probably withstand an historic Labour landslide.

Should it be this way?

Probably not. The use of tax levers to maximise advantage for the governing party highlights how unfair the system of prime ministerial prerogative can be. During the 2010-15 coalition, and for a short time afterwards, this power was taken away under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011; this imposed a fixed timetable of five-yearly elections, making it difficult for a prime minister to ask the sovereign to dissolve parliament if opposition parties didn’t agree. However, the Act was in practice bypassed for political reasons in 2017, and again in 2019. It was then repealed and replaced by the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, which codified the prior ancient conventions.