Could the NHS weight-loss jab also shrink your tax bill?

Cutting sickness could give the chancellor headroom for pre-election giveaways, says Andrew Grice

Weight loss drugs will be prescribed along with exercise (PA)

A £40m NHS pilot scheme in which obese people will be offered weight-loss jabs has been announced by the government in the hope of getting them back into work and reducing waiting lists.

Rishi Sunak has hailed Wegovy and similar medicines as a “game-changer” as they help patients lose up to 15 per cent of their body weight when prescribed alongside diet, physical activity and behavioural support. The newest drugs will be made available to between 5,000 and 10,000 people and their use will be extended much more widely if evidence shows they work.

Why is the government doing this?

Obesity is one of the leading causes of severe health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer, and it costs the NHS £6.5bn a year. It was a factor in more than 1 million admissions to NHS hospitals in the 2019-20 financial year. However, the government has been criticised for going soft after it declined to extend the “sugar tax” on soft drinks introduced by George Osborne and delayed a proposed ban on TV ads for foods high in fat, salt and sugar before the 9pm watershed.

Is this about the long-term sickness bill?

In part. Steve Barclay, the health and social care secretary, said: “There could be potential economic benefits because economic inactivity, mental health challenge, MSK (musculoskeletal conditions), various health challenges linked to obesity obviously have an impact in terms of the labour market, in terms of staff absence.” He insisted the pilot will be set on “health criteria” but said the Treasury would look at “what wider benefits there may be”.

Britain does have a sickness problem. Some 2.5 million working-age people are on long-term sickness benefits, a figure expected to rise to 3.7 million by 2028. The number of economically inactive people is 360,000 higher than before the pandemic. The cost of benefits paid to those of working age is on course to rise by 84 per cent above the pre-pandemic level to £77.5bn by 2027.

What has this got to do with tax cuts?

The Treasury has traditionally been sceptical about investing in preventive medicine. But a government source told The Times: “Work is going on to see if they can get [the Office for Budget Responsibility] to score this as saving money.” The paper reported that the chief medical officer and chief economist at the Treasury will “build evidence on which treatment and public health measures could save the government money while Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, seeks to find headroom for tax cuts in the autumn.” However, the OBR usually sets a high bar for claims that projects will save money.

Will the Conservatives cut taxes before the general election?

Yes. Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt are under enormous pressure to reduce taxes from Tory MPs, who say it would help people struggling in the cost of living crisis and mark a return to “Conservative principles”.

Mr Sunak is reported to want a cut of up to 2p in the pound in the basic rate of income tax or national insurance from April next year – ahead of an autumn election.

Tory backbenchers want the announcement to be made in the chancellor’s autumn statement in November but Mr Hunt might need to wait until the Budget next March to be sure of having enough headroom. The obesity drugs pilot scheme is unlikely to help much as it will last for two years.

However, even an ambitious 2p cut costing the Treasury £13.7bn would not compensate the public for the £29bn “stealth tax” caused by the freezing of tax allowances and thresholds until 2027-28.