Is James Cleverly the new frontrunner in the Tory leadership election?

Two polls paint very different pictures of the race to replace Rishi Sunak. Sean O’Grady looks at whether the former home secretary could benefit from a late surge

Anything is possible in a Conservative leadership election (Joe Giddens/PA Wire)

Things are livening up in the battle for the Tory leadership. For some weeks, the working assumption has been that Kemi Badenoch is in the lead; now it appears James Cleverly has overtaken her among the Conservative Party membership, with Priti Patel emerging as runner-up, Badenoch third and Tom Tugendhat fourth. This is according to a Techne survey commissioned by the Cleverly team; it is somewhat out of line with the Conservative Home panel, which still has Badenoch ahead and Patel much further behind most of the others. But it could mean the race is rather more open and unpredictable than first thought.

What’s going on?

It seems unlikely that different timings for the fieldwork and candidates’ responses (or lack of them) to the riots could explain a sudden Cleverly surge, though as shadow home secretary he had a slightly higher profile during the disturbances. The differences in standing are stark (Techne figures first, Conservative Home second):

• James Cleverly            26             10
• Priti Patel                     20              8
• Kemi Badenoch           14             33
• Tom Tugendhat           11              10
• Robert Jenrick             10             19
• Mel Stride                     4              2

Some of the disparities could be explained by the fact that identifying a representative sample of the approximately 172,000 members is intrinsically difficult; that their views may still be fairly fluid; and that the Conservative Home panel tends to attract the more committed and politically engaged types. At any rate, Cleverly will be chuffed that he’d win handily whoever he ended up against.

Does it matter?

After the Tory MPs have whittled down the choice to two names that go forward in the membership vote, all that matters is the collective judgement of that comparatively tiny group of individuals, deeply unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole: richer, whiter and, obviously, more right wing and pro-Brexit.

But if, say, Cleverly or Patel actually didn’t make it to that final pairing, then their popularity among the grassroots is irrelevant (aside from causing some lasting resentments).

What do the MPs think?

The 121 souls in the much-denuded parliamentary Conservative Party are mostly uncommitted, with all the candidates boasting between four and six public backers. Most of what passes for the senior echelons haven’t expressed a view, and Rishi Sunak, still leader of the opposition, is staying out of it.

Who’s the smart money on?

Political betting is a little less fashionable in Tory circles these days, but Badenoch is still the bookies’ favourite, albeit her odds have been drifting out (now at about 2/1) with Jenrick tightening (7/4) and, to a lesser degree, Cleverly (5/1) also closing in on her. Stride is the rank outsider (22/1). For comparison, you can get 50/1 on Nigel Farage taking over the Tory party.

Who would the public choose?

“None of the above” is the glib answer, or, even worse, they don’t mind because they don’t care (as other polls have shown recently). The Techne poll suggests Tugendhat enjoys the broadest appeal in the electorate, and that’s confirmed by other public opinion polling which shows him the “least hated Tory”, if we can put it like that among the Labour, Reform and Lib Dem voters they need to win back to be in contention for the next general election.

Yet, the party membership that gifted Britain Liz Truss seems to indicate it doesn’t much care what wider voters want. Unless, of course, the recent defeat has really made them think again…