Why the aid budget rebellion is Boris Johnson’s biggest headache yet

The recent rows over cronyism, sleaze and Dominic Cummings’s insider revelations might not have bothered the public but will have registered with MPs, writes Sean O’Grady

Johnson was no paragon of virtue when he was openly undermining May (AFP/Getty/PA)

Will Boris Johnson have to reverse his cuts to foreign aid? The latest recruit to the rebel side is Theresa May, a famously loyal and cautious figure who, as a former premier, cannot have made such a decision lightly. She joins a (mostly) distinguished list of senior figures determined to side with the opposition parties to reverse the reduction in the overseas aid budget from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Mitchell, Damien Green, Karen Bradley, Johnny Mercer and Stephen Crabb almost constitute a government-in-exile, and they seem sincere in their belief that the historic pledge made and delivered under the Tory governments of David Cameron and Ms May should be protected. They claim to have around 30 allies, which is almost enough to overturn the government’s majority. On the other hand, depending on their mood and developments on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the government might be able to rely on the eight DUP MPs for support. It might be tight, either way, come Monday.

Much will also depend on the views of Speaker Hoyle. The unusual route being taken is an amendment to a bill on a quite different matter – the new hi-tech Advanced Research and Invention Agency. The rebels say the government acted unlawfully in changing the aid target without changing the law; ministers say they are allowed to suspend the target temporarily. In any case, there has not been a parliamentary vote on the matter.

It is certainly a noble cause, but it is also aided by a certain amount, perhaps, of personal political rivalry and pique, for obvious reasons, plus some wider general disquiet about what might be termed the Johnson style of government. The recent rows over cronyism and sleaze, his flat refurbishment and Dominic Cummings’s insider account of the lazy and chaotic response to the Covid pandemic might not have bothered the public much, but will have registered with the MPs. There is the fear that a gradual accretion of sleazy stories will damage the party. However, for now, the Conservatives enjoy a lead over Labour of around 10 per cent, Mr Johnson mostly did well in the May elections, and he has some political credit back in the bank thanks to the “vaccine bounce”. It is also fair to add that the British electorate is not as sympathetic to foreign aid as the political classes tend to be.