Will Rishi Sunak rely on Labour to pass protocol deal?

The PM has been warned not to push an imminent deal with the EU through parliament against the DUP’s wishes. Adam Forrest takes a closer look at what happens next

The PM’s deal could require Keir Starmer’s support to get it over the line (Getty/EPA)

Rishi Sunak will be feeling cautiously confident that he can get through the latest Brexit turmoil with his authority intact, after several senior Brexiteers indicated they were keen to back his agreement with the EU.

The prime minister looks set to avoid an overwhelming rebellion among his backbenchers, despite a rough week in which he failed to bring the DUP and the unionists’ Tory allies in the European Research Group (ERG) on board with the outline of his compromise with Brussels.

With or without the DUP, Sunak is ready to announce his deal within “days”, deputy prime minister Dominic Raab suggested. It could come as soon as Monday, with MPs asked to be in parliament in case the details of the agreement are finally ready to be unveiled.

Raab also appeared to confirm that there will be a vote in parliament soon. “MPs will have a chance of expressing themselves,” he said on Sunday. “You have to carry parliament with you, and I’m confident we would be able to.”

Will Sunak survive a showdown vote? Just how big and just how damaging could a rebellion be? Certainly there is very little chance of complete failure, given that Keir Starmer has indicated that Labour will support a deal achieved by the government “in the national interest”.

But the ERG is warning that an uprising will go beyond the few dozen MPs who remain militant members of the group. James Duddridge has claimed that up to 100 MPs could oppose a deal if it maintains EU law in Northern Ireland and fails to meet the DUP’s tests, warning that Sunak’s “own neck” was on “the chopping block”.

Other hardliners have warned of the potential for huge damage to his premiership, with Simon Clarke saying it would be “desperately ill-advised” to rely on Labour and would undermine his authority within the strife-riven Conservative Party.

But the ERG is not the force it once was. Only 22 members turned up for a big meeting last week, according to RTE, and some say the group is “bluffing” about the scale of the rebellion. Plenty of Brexiteers appear minded to support the deal, even while expressing their concerns.

Former Brexit minister David Davis told The Independent that his “instinct” was to back the deal, given that it appeared to remove checks for some goods via a “green lane” and that it would go some way towards handing back control of VAT, state aid, and other matters to Westminster. “If they can win people like me over, they’ll win it,” he said.

Martin Vickers, a staunch Brexiteer, said it was time to “move on” from the protocol row and address other issues. Another senior Brexiteer told The Independent that the proposed agreement appeared to be “very good”.

If the rebellion was limited to only 37 or 38 Tory MPs, it would still be enough to spoil Sunak’s majority, and would require the support of Labour to get it over the line. But that need not be a disaster.

“If he needs Labour support, it might be mildly embarrassing, but nothing more,” said Davis. “But since the deal seems to be better than any his predecessors got, then who should be embarrassed?”

Even if the DUP refuses to restore powersharing at Stormont, the PM’s dependence on Labour may boost his standing with the public. A deal signed off by both the main parties might make Sunak appear more statesmanlike among voters who have grown tired of Brexit rows.

The headache-inducing impasse in Northern Ireland is likely to remain at the end of this historic week in Westminster. But the prime minister’s deal looks set to command the support of the EU, the British public, the Commons, and a large majority of his own party.

It might just be enough to send the DUP off to lick its wounds for a few months and consider whether it’s really worth fighting over the protocol for another year ahead of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections now due to take place in January 2024.