SNP leadership race: how will it work and who is favourite to replace Sturgeon?

Who are the contenders and how might the leadership battle affect wider British politics, asks Sean O’Grady

Three contenders are expected to go through to the members’ vote ( PA)

Three official candidates will compete for the leadership of the Scottish National Party and to be the next first minister of Scotland. Roughly 100,000 SNP members are eligible to vote, and the result will be announced soon after the polls close on 27 March. After the shock departure of Nicola Sturgeon, who has been at or near the top of Scottish politics for two decades, the eventual winner will find they have a hard act to follow.

What happens now?

Jostling began almost as soon as Sturgeon quit on 15 February, and much has happened since – not least the rows about finance minister Kate Forbes’s views on sexual morality. Forbes is still in the running, and is joined by bookies’ favourite Humza Yousaf along with Ash Regan, a former minister who stood down in protest at the Gender Recognition Reform Bill.

While the contest will be nowhere near as long as the recent battles for the Tory leadership, there are some weeks to go, with a two-week voting window opening up on 13 March; time enough for more gaffes and upsets.

There haven’t yet been any polls of SNP members, but there has been a poll of SNP voters, which may be suggestive. To some surprise, it places Forbes in the lead, with the support of 28 per cent. Yousaf is on 20 per cent, and Regan on 7 per cent (a chunky 31 per cent are undecided).

The contest uses a preferential “alternative vote” system rather than first past the post. In a tight contest between Forbes and Yousaf, the second-preference votes of Regan’s supporters could become critical.

A working assumption might be that Regan’s supporters would, like her, be more radically bullish and impatient about independence, but possibly more conservative on the trans rights issues that have so dominated recent internal arguments. So how those voters might split between Yousaf and Forbes is unclear, given that neither of the two frontrunners holds strongly expressed views on the path to independence.

Regan wants to toughen up on Sturgeon’s idea of making the next Westminster general election a de facto independence referendum, by extending the idea to Holyrood elections. She also wants to create a much wider independence coalition, including Alex Salmond’s Alba party alongside community and other groups. Neither Forbes nor Yousaf has expressed any enthusiasm for that.

On the other hand, Forbes’s relative social conservatism – coupled with the fact that she identifies less closely with Sturgeon than does Yousaf – could be a factor in her favour for Reganites. Like Regan, Forbes is a “change” candidate; Yousaf is more the continuity Sturgeon man.

Forbes could overtake Yousaf with Regan voters’ backing, if he doesn’t secure 50 per cent or more on the first count.

What will it mean for SNP fortunes?

The contest could well set them back. Leadership elections tend to be divisive, even acrimonious affairs, and this one is proving no exception. Voters don’t like divided parties, and the SNP seems riven on trans rights, the future of North Sea oil and gas jobs under net zero commitments, and, of course, the best way to secure Indyref2. If Forbes were to make it to the leadership, she’d be sure to ruffle some feathers. In short, Sturgeon is a hard act to follow, and they’ll miss her when she’s gone.

How likely is a new independence referendum?

Indyref2’s chances seem slimmer by the day. First, there is the loss of Sturgeon; she herself pointed out that she was a dominant figure, and she was concerned about her own personality getting in the way of the much more important national question. She’d also been damaged by the trans prisoner controversy. Yet Sturgeon still enjoyed remarkably healthy personal approval ratings, alongside unassailable authority, and kept her party moored.

Now the SNP is already looking smaller and more lost, and the cause of independence will suffer with it until the new leader establishes themselves and the party holds its now-postponed special conference about the road to independence.

A second factor is the likely imminent removal of a very England-facing, pro-Brexit Conservative government in London. Boris Johnson was an extremely valuable asset to the SNP. A more pro-European Labour government lessens the urgency of independence as a means to get rid of Tory rule and rebuild relationships with Europe. The bruising experience of Brexit may also have suggested that dissolving a long-standing political and economic union can prove especially painful for the smaller party.

What do the polls say?

Even before Sturgeon’s resignation, ratings had been slipping for both the SNP and independence, though not disastrously. At Westminster, the SNP is currently on 43 per cent, compared with 45 per cent at the 2019 general election. Labour is back in second place now, albeit a little distantly, on 29 per cent (vs 19 per cent in 2019), with the Tories down on 18 per cent (vs 25 per cent). The Lib Dems have also lost a little ground.

In terms of Commons seats, the SNP would easily come first in net terms, gaining some Tory rural seats while losing some central-belt marginals to a resurgent Labour. For Holyrood in 2026, the SNP is relatively weaker still.

The tacitly acknowledged threshold for a successful independence referendum campaign is at least 60 per cent support in the polls, but the current figure, according to YouGov’s latest tracker, is 46 per cent for Yes and 54 per cent for No.

The latter stages of Johnson’s government, and the brief turbulent reign of Liz Truss, saw a decisive shift to Yes in the second half of last year. However, the arrival of Rishi Sunak and a resurgent Labour Party has nudged sentiment back towards support for the union in 2023. Such movements are strongly indicative of a symbiotic relationship between the Tories in London and the Nationalists in Scotland.