An MP’s defection to the Tories over ‘bullying’ adds to misery at SNP conference

As the party’s annual gathering begins in Aberdeen, Sean O’Grady takes a look at the issues, from independence to MP defections, that will take centre stage

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader, pictured at Bute House in Edinburgh on Thursday (PA)

As the old curse goes, the Scottish National Party is living in interesting times. As it assembles for its annual conference in Aberdeen, it has much to occupy its collective mind. The past year has seen the party bogged down by financial irregularities; the arrest of some of its senior figures, including Nicola Sturgeon (released without charge); a bitter leadership election; and divisions over the route to independence.

More recently, Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, on a 20.4 per cent swing – which was the first time the SNP had lost such a contest; and now, Lisa Cameron, the sitting SNP MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, has defected to the Conservatives – something else that’s never happened before. After 16 years in government, it’s a good moment to examine the party’s prospects.

Why has Lisa Cameron quit the SNP?

Her ostensible reason is thus: “I do not feel able to continue in what I have experienced as a toxic and bullying SNP Westminster group, which resulted in my requiring counselling for a period of 12 months in parliament and caused significant deterioration in my health and wellbeing as assessed by my GP, including the need for antidepressants.”

While there’s no reason to doubt any of that, it’s also true that she was just about to be deselected as the SNP candidate for the next general election, and, as she herself admits, there’s no love lost between her and her party leadership.

What’s going on?

Cameron has become disaffected for two main reasons. First, she didn’t agree with the way the Westminster SNP group dealt with allegations of sexual harassment levelled against a fellow SNP MP, Patrick Grady, who had also served as the party’s chief whip.

Lisa Cameron MP, who has defected to join the Conservatives (Parliament UK / Creative Commons)

There are more fundamental differences, too, most notably on the highly emotive issue of the rights of trans people and gender identity. Cameron’s opinions on abortion and trans self-ID are at odds with the SNP’s mostly liberal-minded members and the party establishment (though the party is divided, as became clear when Kate Forbes entered the race for the leadership).

But... the Conservatives?

Well, yes. Cameron would probably not have found Scottish Labour a congenial base, given her views. Apparently, Rishi Sunak himself “reached out” to her, and her views on social issues are much more in tune with the current Conservative mainstream. She might instead have opted to join Alex Salmond’s rival nationalist Alba Party, which is also more socially conservative than the SNP. Perhaps she fell out of love with independence, too. There’s a rumour that Sunak offered her a peerage.

Will there be a by-election?

During the deselection process, Cameron did threaten it, and she might have won if she’d stood for Labour, given current polling. As a Scottish Tory, she’d have no chance of holding on if a ballot were held now, and so she has opted to carry on for another year or so. She’ll “cross the floor” of the House of Commons on Monday. The new Labour MP for Rutherglen will also be sworn in that day.

She’s not alone, is she?

Not in the sense of packing it in. The most dramatic loss has been Mhairi Black, the MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South and an SNP young meteor, who will stand down at the next election. Like Cameron, she’s talked about an unhealthy atmosphere at Westminster. Ian Blackford (the SNP’s former Westminster leader), Douglas Chapman, Angela Crawley, Peter Grant, Stewart Hosie and Philippa Whitford are also off, for a variety of reasons.

Meanwhile, Angus MacNeil, the lively member for the Western Isles, has been expelled and says he’ll stand as an independent. (Margaret Ferrier was also expelled, which led to the by-election at Rutherglen.)

How are the SNP doing in the polls?

Holding up surprisingly well in the circumstances, but still suffering a large swing to the resurgent Scottish Labour Party. The Scot Nats are still ahead of everyone else, on 38 per cent, and enjoy a lead of about 10 points over Labour. However, at the 2019 general election, a dismal one for Labour (which finished third behind the Conservatives), the SNP was an astonishing 26 points ahead of Labour. On this sort of showing, the SNP could lose anywhere between 20 and 30 seats to Labour.

What does all this mean for independence?

Inevitably, it feels like it’s disappearing over the horizon. The latest development is that the SNP leadership want to tweak their stated objective for the next Westminster elections. Inevitably, it feels like it’s disappearing over the horizon. The latest development is that the SNP leadership want to tweak their stated objective for the next Westminster elections. At the last, special conference to agree an independence strategy, it was decided that if the  SNP won “the most” Scottish seats, they’d regard that as a mandate to demand another referendum on independence.

It is reported that this is being changed to “a majority” of the seats, which sounds similar, but “the most” has been taken to mean “more seats than the next-largest party”, whereas a majority of all the seats will be harder to achieve. Thus, if the Labour revival means that it takes, say, 20 seats next time, with the Tories on 7, the Lib Dems on 4 and the SNP on 26, that would no longer count as a majority, and Humza Yousaf, as leader and first minister, wouldn’t press the case.

It means that the SNP basically thinks that the effort would be futile – given the weakness in its current support, and polling that shows pro-independence sentiment stuck at 47 per cent. A second loss might put the cause back a generation.

But some, both inside and outside the party, are more impatient.