Can Rishi Sunak make the small boats law a success?

The prime minister could develop a reputation as a problem-solver but Sean O’Grady says it might not win him any votes

Rishi Sunak hasspoken on wanting to create a ‘deterrent effect’ for migrants planning to cross the Channel (Kirsty Wigglesworth/PA) (PA Wire)

Suella Braverman, with Rishi Sunak at her side, has presented her new immigration bill to parliament. Not only are migration and asylum issues that have proved hugely controversial, but getting control of Britain’s borders was a key promise made by Brexiteers, now reinforced by Sunak’s personal promise to ‘stop the boats’ – one of his five key pledges for 2023.

What’s the good news for Sunak?

The prime minister will be hoping the small boats crisis will be the second seemingly unfathomable political ‘Rubik’s cube’ he can earn credit for sorting out. The first was the Windsor Framework – his replacement for the Northern Ireland Protocol, which achieved widespread, though not universal, acclaim. The aim of this immigration policy is to make it impossible to claim asylum in the UK if arriving by illegal means. This, the reasoning goes, removes the incentive to make the perilous journey across the English Channel and collapse the business model of the people-smugglers. The policy is one of deterrence.

Even though his Windsor Framework success didn’t make a material impact on his personal ratings – because sadly few outside the province pay it much attention – a tangible end to the small boats crisis would be more broadly welcomed. Sunak would be able to claim he has protected the right to asylum via safe and secure routes for specific groups.

With future possible success on inflation, NHS waiting lists and economic growth, Sunak may even develop a reputation as a problem-solver; It is a moot point whether this might convert into recovering support for his party.

What could possibly go wrong?

The moral and legal problems with the new bill have been well-publicised, and they are real enough. Britain has as great an obligation as any other nation to provide shelter for the persecuted and the right to claim refugee status is universal and not governed by any quota; Britain is bound to offer asylum under international treaty and there are few safe third-country options available where rejected asylum-seekers may be sent.

Removing the right of asylum for those arriving across the Channel might simply remove any incentive to surrender to Border Force; although official numbers might reduce, migrants of all categories might simply melt away into communities, working for cash in the informal economy while living in overcrowded, unregulated accommodation. This would be an especially appalling prospect for women and children.

A more immediate problem might be a rush to claim asylum before the legislation is effective, thus increasing the numbers and making Sunak’s pledges rather pathetic. Such a perverse short-term outcome wouldn’t bolster his ratings.

What’s likely to happen?

Despite Sunak’s radical speech on immigration in December, his ‘stop the boats’  pledge and the new bill, it is likely little will change by the election next year. The bill itself, which had no mention in the 2019 manifesto, will have a very tough time in the Lords. Some Tory MPs might also have qualms about restricting judicial review and breaching the European Convention on Human Rights. Even when it eventually gains royal assent, it will be challenged first in British courts then the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Given how long such cases take, the Illegal Immigration (Offences) Act 2023 might end up being abolished, or heavily amended, by an incoming Labour government before it makes any impact at all.

What do the voters think?

It is an emotive and divisive electoral issue, not least because it has been used by the far right to whip up discontent. Some Conservative strategists may also have a cynical eye on its potency as a wedge issue, especially in the ‘left behind’ communities that turned from Labour to the Tories in recent years; they believe that portraying Labour’s duty of opposition as being ‘soft on illegal immigration’ will help them retain Red Wall seats.

However, opinion polls suggest many voters don’t think either party has a convincing policy, and of those that do it’s actually Labour that has a small lead. The latest YouGov poll asking voters which party would best handle immigration and asylum puts Labour on 21 per cent, the Conservatives on 17 per cent, ‘other’ (e.g. Reform UK) on 8 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats 7 per cent. By contrast, some 19 per cent answered “none” and 27 per cent didn’t know, so 46 per cent were thus unconvinced by any of the parties’ policies. In 2019, the Conservatives led Labour on the issue by 26 per cent to 13 per cent. Since then, television images of 40,000 small boat arrivals per year have dented confidence in the government’s capacity to live up to its rhetoric.

Perhaps voters now realise the issue is more intractable than it seems, and if passing tough new laws were the answer then the small boats crisis would be over by now.