After Nicola Sturgeon, the new battle for Scotland’s votes

Sean O’Grady examines how Labour and the Tories might campaign on independence, Brexit, the economy and gender reforms

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (PA)

Even her most strident critics admit that the departure of Nicola Sturgeon leaves a big space in Scottish politics. The question is: who might gain from it?

How will Sturgeon’s resignation affect the SNP?

Political uncertainty and renewed focus on the Scottish government’s home problems are likely to further depress the SNP’s ratings; in polls on voting intention, it has been losing more ground at Holyrood than Westminster.

The list of mistakes and disappointments is growing stronger, as should be expected for a party in power for more than 15 years. Setbacks include: school reforms; an NHS under strain; a vast overspend on ferries for the isles; a seemingly botched bottle return scheme open to fraud; the SNP’s own party finances, as run by Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell; the deeply controversial Gender Recognition Reform Bill and trans prisoners; and of course the lack of any clear and agreed path to independence.

Of its nature, the SNP leadership election will probably only serve to exacerbate tensions and resemble a circular firing squad. Whoever succeeds Sturgeon will inherit a divided party and will lack the leverage to pull things together that she inherited from Alex Salmond.

Who is in the best position to benefit?

In recent years, the Conservatives have enjoyed an unlikely revival as the main unionist party, driven at first by proportional representation at Holyrood then by tactical voting in Westminster seats. This was given a tailwind by Labour’s wipeout in the 2015 Westminster election, and a longer-term neglect of the local Labour party machine dating back to at least the Blair era. Complacency, condescension and Corbyn, plus the aftermath of the 2014  independence and 2016 Brexit referendums, polarised politics in the 2010s in unpredictable ways. Thus, the Tories emerged from near-extinction to become the main opposition at Holyrood under Ruth Davidson in 2016, and also scored second place in the Westminster 2019 general election – with 6 seats and 25.1 per cent of the Scottish vote to Labour’s single seat, in Edinburgh, and a dismal 18.6 per cent vote share.

As recently as the early 2000s, Labour could count on about 45 per cent of the vote in Scotland and a solid phalanx of around 50 MPs travelling south to bolster its chances of forming a government. That was already being lost by the time the SNP formed its first minority government in Scotland in 2007.

However, since 2019, Tory chaos and decline nationally and the travails of the SNP have altered the landscape. There were already some signs of modest revival under new Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, both in polling and the 2021 Airdrie by-election. That gentle momentum for Labour was evident even before Sturgeon quit. It seems likely that after her departure Labour will make further progress.

What has Scottish Labour got to look forward to?

In a fortunate accident of timing, Scottish Labour gathers for its spring conference in Edinburgh this weekend and will be in good heart. The “pitch” appears on its website thus: “In the year since our last conference, Labour’s position has transformed both in Scotland and across the UK. More and more people are growing tired of two failing governments – at Holyrood and at Westminster.” In vote share, Labour regained second place at last year’s Scottish local elections, and the next decisive moment will be the UK general election, probably in 2014, and Holyrood elections in 2026.

Any problems for the Scottish Labour revival?

Yes. The party in all parts of the UK supports trans rights, and the Scottish group at Hollywood was in favour of the troublesome Gender Recognition Reform Bill, so Sarwar and colleagues will be asked the same questions about women’s rights and the treatment of trans prisoners as Sturgeon and the SNP were confronted with.

Given Scotland’s strong pro-Remain vote in 2016, and continuing resentment at being torn out of the EU against its will, Starmer’s recent accommodation with Brexit and pledge to stay out of the single market and customs union will also be a negative. For Europhiles, the “Scotland in Europe” message of the SNP is more attractive. For those committed to independence, only the SNP, and to an extent the Greens and Alx Samond’s Alba, really represent that interest. However, the chaos of Brexit might put some voters off further constitutional upheaval; the fastest way to get rid of English Tories ruling Scotland is to elect a Labour government, many will say.

What does Labour say about independence and deals with the SNP?

In contrast to his two most recent predecessors, Keir Starmer has been very clear there will be no pacts, deals or accommodations with the SNP in the event of a hung parliament at Westminster. It means any election poster showing Starmer in the pocket of the next SNP leader will lack the credibility it might have carried in the past.

In reality, it would be bizarre and probably damaging to the nationalists if an SNP group in the Commons voted down a Labour government and either ushered in a Conservative administration, or forced early general election. Even if that was threatened, the Tories could abstain on a vote of confidence so Starmer is in a strong position to defy any SNP demands.

However, the question remains whether Labour would continue the Tory policy of rebuffing demands for another referendum on independence. There are risks in both directions. Too negative and Starmer would seem hostile to Scotland and to “yes” voters who nonetheless want to see the back of the Tories; too positive and he alienates “no” voters otherwise inclined to stick with the Conservatives.

What will it mean for the evolution of devolution?

Rishi Sunak has already slightly thawed the Cold War that existed between No 10 and Bute House under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, both of whom showed open contempt for Sturgeon. The next Scottish first minister will at least be given some respect and cooperation.

Consultative committees set up after devolution in 1998 have fallen into disrepair in recent years, and it seems likely they will be revived. Labour might offer Scottish voters greater powers for Holyrood in the next election manifesto, as well as adopting a more positive approach. In due course, and with some work and luck, Starmer and Sarwar may even be able to restore the status quo ante 2007, with Labour or Labour-led administrations in Westminster and at Holyrood.