Could Ruth Davidson’s resignation and Labour’s backing for another Scottish referendum decide the next election

Loss of the Tories’ popular Scottish leader is a major blow for Boris Johnson, while Jeremy Corbyn’s shift on Scottish independence is likely made with an autumn election in mind

Jeremy Corbyn had barely arrived in Scotland on Thursday before his visit was overshadowed by another event happening north of the border: the resignation of Ruth Davidson as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

But the announcement the Labour leader made during his trip was just as significant as Ms Davidson quitting, and both events could have real implications for the outcome of the next general election.

Let’s start with Ms Davidson. The Scottish Conservative leader cited both “professional and personal” reasons for stepping down, and said she wanted to spend more time with her new son Finn.

It is no secret, though, that she has a strained relationship with Boris Johnson and, as a vocal Remain supporter, does not share his views on Brexit. It is telling that she spoke openly in her resignation speech about the “conflict” she felt in relation to Brexit. That her resignation came the day after the prime minister announced that he had asked the Queen to suspend parliament – a decision likely to be anathema to Ms Davidson and her brand of moderate politics – was also lost on no one.

Her decision to step down is a major blow for Mr Johnson and his team, not because they have lost anyone resembling an ally – far from it – but because of what it means for their hopes of retaining the Tories’ Scottish seats at the next election.

Ms Davidson is a popular figure in Scotland, and the Tories’ success north of the border in the 2017 election, when they went from holding one seat to winning 13, was attributed largely to her appeal.

With the next election on a knife edge, those seats will be crucial. Losing them would be a major blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of maintaining the Tories’ ability to form a government, let alone winning a majority in the House of Commons. The prime minister’s determination to portray himself as a One Nation Tory, despite his hardline stance on Brexit, is in part driven by the need to win support from SNP voters in Scotland and Liberal Democrats in England and Wales. That task will not be made any easier by the loss of one of his party’s best known, and most impressive, moderate voices.

SNP voters are crucial for Labour, too. Mr Corbyn’s party has seen its support in Scotland slump since the 2017 general election, when it picked up 27 per cent of the vote. A recent poll placed it on just 17 per cent, while the SNP has climbed to 39 per cent.

It will be hard for Labour to reach any position from which to form a government unless it wins back at least some of the seats it lost to the SNP in recent years.

In that context, it does not take a political mastermind to work out why the party has suddenly softened its opposition to another independence referendum, with Mr Corbyn announcing during his visit on Thursday that a Labour government would not block another vote providing Brexit has been resolved and steps taken to end austerity and tackle climate change.

That announcement came weeks after Labour’s semi-shift towards backing the UK remaining in the EU, which the party now says it would do if the alternatives were the government’s Brexit deal or no deal. Both changes in policy were almost certainly made with electoral calculations in mind – Labour strategists know the party needs to do a better job of winning back voters from the more strongly anti-Brexit parties, namely the SNP and the Liberal Democrats.

Why is this all happening now? Because the growing belief in Westminster is that the country is heading for a general election later this year. What is far from clear is how it will be triggered, and whether the UK will still be in the EU at the time. Will rebel Tory MPs join forces with opposition parties to topple Mr Johnson’s government? Will the prime minister call an election after the Commons blocks his attempt to deliver a no-deal Brexit? Or will he succeed in taking Britain out of the EU and then call an immediate election in the hope of winning a governing majority?

That all remains to be seen, and much depends on how successful MPs are in the coming days at legislating to block a no-deal Brexit. But when the election does come around, the fate of Labour and the Conservatives in Scotland could well determine who enters No 10. Thursday’s events could prove to be far more significant than they first appeared.