Inspiring fear will only get Vladimir Putin so far – as Ukraine has proven

Sir Jeremy Fleming, the director of GCHQ, is clear about the position the Russian president finds himself in, writes Sean O’Grady

Vladimir Putin’s advisers are said to be scared to tell him the truth about Ukraine (SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

Sir Jeremy Fleming is the director of GCHQ, the UK’s intelligence, security and cyber agency. Like others in the western intelligence community, he appears to know more about Russia’s war in Ukraine than Vladimir Putin.

What’s more, he even claims to know why he knows more about the invasion than does the man who ordered it. In a speech given in Australia, Fleming said the Russian leader had misjudged the strength of Ukrainian resistance, the western economic and military response, and the ability of his forces to deliver a rapid victory. His strategic miscalculation in launching the invasion of Ukraine, Fleming explains, is partly because his advisers are “afraid to tell him the truth” about the extent of his error.

There is little reason to doubt Sir Jeremy’s analysis. Putin would not be the first Russian leader, or, indeed, autocrat anywhere, to be so feared by his top officers and closest advisers that they hesitate to tell him unpalatable truths. It can be a fatal problem. Many of Russia’s early failures in the Second World War, for example, were because Joseph Stalin was being told by his toadying diplomats that there was no chance of Adolf Hitler invading, and when some of his spies did pass on information about German intentions and tanks moving around he dismissed them, such was his confidence. Not until it was too late would Stalin understand that his forces were fighting poorly because he had ordered some of his best generals to be shot in a savage pre-war purge.