Has Labour’s Rochdale debacle gifted George Galloway an open goal?

What was set to be a straightforward contest to replace the late Labour MP Tony Lloyd, who died of blood cancer aged 73, has been mired by a series of scandals. Archie Mitchell asks how we got here, and what will happen next

The front runner to win, George Galloway, is one of the most divisive figures in British politics (PA)

Voters in Rochdale will head to the polls on Thursday for one of the most controversial by-elections in recent history. What was set to be a straightforward contest to replace the late Labour MP Tony Lloyd, who died of blood cancer in January aged 73, has been mired by a series of scandals, with residents left facing an invidious choice.

Rochdale was considered a safe Labour seat, having been won with a comfortable 10,000 majority in 2019, but it is now anything but. Labour no longer has a candidate in the contest, and the front runner to win, George Galloway, is one of the most divisive figures in British politics.

So, how did it come to this, and what should voters look out for on Thursday?

Who are the candidates?

Until he was recorded making antisemitic remarks at a local meeting, Labour’s candidate was Azhar Ali. The local councillor has since been dropped by the party after ranting about “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters”.

While he will still appear on the ballot paper under a Labour banner – a consequence of Electoral Commission rules – Ali will be forced to sit as an independent if he wins on Thursday.

Galloway, described by the Campaign Against Antisemitism as “an inflammatory firebrand with an atrocious record of baiting the Jewish community”, is also standing in the seat and is the bookies’ favourite. He is contesting the election on a pro-Palestinian ticket for the Workers Party of Britain.

And rounding out the list of controversial candidates is Reform UK’s Simon Danczuk. Danczuk has previously served as the Labour MP for Rochdale, between 2010 and 2017, but was suspended by the party in 2015 after exchanging explicit messages with a 17-year-old girl.

Shadow health minister Wes Streeting has said he would spoil his ballot if he were a voter in the constituency.

What if George Galloway wins?

The Campaign Against Antisemitism said Galloway’s “endurance in our public life serves to exploit extremist sentiment and divide our communities”. He appears unrepentant about the chants of “From the river to the sea” at his campaign rallies in Rochdale – a phrase regarded as antisemitic by some, though he denies it is.

Critics fear that the controversial politician’s return to parliament will further inflame tensions, with instances of antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents already rocketing in the wake of the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel.

Could Azhar Ali win, and will Labour take him back?

Ali will still appear on the ballot as Labour’s candidate as it was too late to remove him by the time Keir Starmer withdrew the party’s support. It is expected that a significant number of voters will support Ali unaware that he has been dropped by Labour, while others will back him as the least bad option.

He is also reported still to be campaigning in the seat as an independent, with graphics being circulated on WhatsApp that describe him as “a strong voice for Palestine”. If he wins, Ali will sit as an independent MP, and the party will choose a candidate to stand against him in the general election expected this autumn.

And what about Reform UK?

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is contesting the election fresh off the back of two campaigns in which its 10 per cent national poll rating was borne out at the ballot box for the first time. The party, now led by Richard Tice, continues to pose a significant threat to Rishi Sunak, and could deprive the Conservatives of majorities in tens of seats at the general election.

And Rochdale is a prime example of a seat in which Reform should outperform its national polling. It is one of the poorest towns in England, and 60 per cent of its residents voted for Brexit, making it a prime target for the party to pick off disgruntled Tory voters.

Its candidate, Danczuk, also has name recognition locally thanks to his previous stint as MP – so for the party to show Sunak that the pressure is on, it will need to significantly outperform its poll performance nationally.

What will happen at the general election?

By the end of the year, whoever is victorious on Thursday night will seek to defend the seat against a new Labour candidate in what polls suggest will be a landslide for the party.

It will be a wholly different contest, defined by whatever the key general election issue ends up being. But whether it is Ali standing again as an independent, or Galloway looking to hold on to the seat, Labour will hope to return the seat to the party fold.

Also standing on Thursday are Iain Donaldson for the Liberal Democrats, Paul Ellison for the Conservative Party, Michael Howarth, Independent, William Howarth, Independent, Ravin Rodent Subortna for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, and David Tully, Independent.

Guy Otten, the Green Party candidate, like Ali, has lost the support of his party over comments he made on Twitter, though his name, like Ali’s, will still appear on the ballot paper.