Could the Tories replace Rishi Sunak before the next election?

Party members would love to see Boris Johnson or Liz Truss back in charge. Sean O’Grady examines whether Tory MPs are ready to topple yet another leader

Heading for the door? Rishi Sunak leaves No 10 for the Commons on Wednesday (Reuters)

It has been a difficult few weeks for Rishi Sunak. The Budget failed to reinvigorate the party’s popularity and his personal ratings remain dismal, stuck down at Liz Truss levels of depression. A string of racism rows and the defection of former deputy chairman Lee Anderson to Reform UK have dealt further blows. His subdued party endured rather than enjoyed this week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, and Keir Starmer was able to crack a gag about only needing a hardy lettuce to make it 2022 all over again. The No 10 media team seems unable to get a consistent line out for ministers to take. There is talk of a “flurry of letters” going to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, calling for Sunak to go; and he’s been warned off calling a May election (assuming he wanted to anyway).

Can the prime minister survive until the election?

Probably. The public wouldn’t appreciate yet another unelected Tory prime minister; it would be the fourth in four years and the sixth in the last decade. It’s all too difficult and embarrassing; but the mood in the party is getting nihilistic. If they slump even further in the polls and get overtaken by Reform UK, panic might set in. The Tory chaos may get worse, but as long as some kind of stability is achieved in public opinion, Sunak will get through it.

Why are his MPs unhappy with him?

Not all are: quite a number in the One Nation Group – the centre and centre-left of the party – are supportive, and even some of those who dislike his policies recognise it is far too late to do anything about it, and that a replacement might be more extreme and less competent, or both.

But the grievances felt by many MPs are real and deeply felt. They include: the Budget, which failed to cut income tax as a headline measure or boost the poll ratings much; failure to “stop the boats”; general dissatisfaction about the levels of irregular and regular migration; no firm pledge to get out of the European Convention on Human Rights; sluggish growth; not “making the most of Brexit opportunities”; still being too indulgent about “woke” issues; the clueless No 10 operation; mishandling Lee Anderson; and nostalgia for Boris Johnson. But the overriding problem is that so many of them, even in normally safe seats, are staring at defeat and unemployment in a matter of months.

What happens if the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence in Sunak’s leadership is reached?

A vote of no confidence would be triggered if 15 per cent of the 348 Conservative MPs – 53 in total – submitted letters. Only two MPs have publicly called for Sunak to go, but the letters are confidential and we don’t know how near the threshold they are.

If the figure of 53 is reached, there will have to be a vote of no confidence. If Sunak decides to contest it, he should win, especially with the “payroll vote” of his own cabinet and junior ministers behind him. But he would be fatally wounded in terms of his authority to lead and could be forced out further down the line anyway, just as Johnson and Theresa May were (who also won their confidence votes).

As a nuclear option, Sunak could call an election, or threaten to do so, especially if there are further defections to Reform UK. A rumour about such a threat, specifically about 10 or more Tory MPs following Anderson out of the party, has surfaced in the press.

Is Boris Johnson about to make a comeback?

He has his supporters, but party rules make it difficult. He would need to be an MP, and there is little chance he’d be able to get back into the Commons quickly enough. Besides, Johnson has too many rivals to make his return a foregone conclusion. It’s quite possible he’d make matters worse – again.

Is Liz Truss about to make a comeback?

No. Not yet, anyway.

Who would be most likely to replace Sunak?

Bookies suggest Kemi Badenoch, who has the advantage of having remained formally loyal to Sunak. But the experts have been wrong before. James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, Penny Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat are the other names in the frame. It’s difficult to see any of them as miracle workers. Michael Gove could be a caretaker, but seems time-expired.

Could a new leader save the party from oblivion?

Even if a new leader had the necessary charisma and policies, there just isn’t the time or the resources to make any real impact before polling day, and a further leadership tussle and change of PM would do more harm than good to the Tories’ standing as a serious party of government. They’re stuck with Sunak, and many will be content to let him carry the can.