Rishi Sunak’s welfare reforms: what is the prime minister promising?

Archie Mitchell looks at how much the pledge is likely to cost, which of the measures are new, and whether Rishi Sunak’s figures add up

Rishi Sunak’s latest pledge will be seen as red meat for Tory voters (PA)

Rishi Sunak has promised to halt the spiralling benefits bill by reforming the welfare system if he wins the election.

The prime minister believes he can save £12bn a year by the end of the next parliament by getting more benefit claimants back to work.

He is proposing a mix of expanded support for those with poor mental health and tighter sanctions for those not seeking work.

But Labour rubbished the plan, which will appear in the Conservative manifesto when it is published this week, as “reheated pledges” from the Tories.

The Independent looks at how much the pledge is likely to cost, which of the measures are new and whether the PM’s figures add up.

What has the prime minister promised?

Mr Sunak’s latest pledge will be seen as red meat for Tory voters. He is promising to toughen benefit sanction rules, speed up the rollout of universal credit, and clamp down on benefit fraudsters.

But describing his “moral mission” to cut the benefits bill, Mr Sunak is also promising a £700m investment in NHS mental health treatment, to ensure 500,000 more people can access talking therapies to help with poor mental health.

He also restated plans to pass the responsibility for issuing sick notes from GPs to specialist work and health professionals.

How much will it save?

The number of working age people without jobs has soared since Covid struck, with many taking early retirement, while those with long-term health conditions are waiting for treatment on the NHS.

But the Conservatives said the 40 per cent increase in economically inactive people, from 2 million to 2.8 million overall since the pandemic, is unsustainable.

The party said the benefit bill for working age people with health conditions could hit £90bn in five years.

And Mr Sunak claims the measures rolled out on Sunday will save around £12bn a year by the end of the next parliament. The Tories said this is a conservative estimate of the potential savings.

How much will it cost and how is it being paid for?

The pledge comes with a £700m price tag for the rollout of NHS talking therapies to 500,000 more people.

The party says this will be funded with the savings made by cutting the number of benefit claimants.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the Tories’ claim that the measures would reduce spending by £12bn relative to the Budget forecast “looks difficult in the extreme”.

IFS associate director Tom Waters said while the PM’s aim was understandable, current spending projections already account for many of the announced plans, meaning they “cannot be expected to deliver reductions in spending relative to the latest forecasts”.

Mr Waters said the most substantial policy that is not already included in current forecasts is the plan to reduce benefit claims from those with mental health conditions.

But while he said “cuts are certainly possible”, the economist added that “history suggests reductions in spending are often much harder to realise than is claimed”.