Will Rishi Sunak be replaced before the election?

As speculation continues to mount about a plot to replace Rishi Sunak with Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Archie Mitchell asks whether Tory MPs will really install another PM before the general election

Penny Mordaunt has been rumoured as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak (Getty)

If Rishi Sunak was hoping for a relaxing end to a torrid week, he will have been bitterly disappointed to see talk of a leadership challenge splashed across the weekend’s papers.

The prime minister is losing control of a restless Conservative Party, with backbench MPs increasingly concerned about the prospect of a general election wipeout.

With Mr Sunak’s repeated relaunches and “stick to the plan” mantra failing to boost the Tories’ poll ratings, some MPs are even questioning whether it is time to pick a new PM altogether.

But while former ministers Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Sir Simon Clarke have publicly called for Mr Sunak to go, senior Tories including Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg have branded the idea “madness”.

As speculation mounts about a plot to replace Mr Sunak with Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, The Independent asks if Tory MPs will really install another PM before the general election.

Why would MPs want to get rid of him?

The Conservatives are trailing Labour by an average of around 20 points in the polls, with a survey at the end of last week putting the gap at 28 points.

While many of Mr Sunak’s MPs have already announced plans to step down at the election, others, including several ministers, are facing the prospect of losing once-safe Conservative seats.

Andrea Jenkyns has called for Sunak to be replaced before the general election (PA)

Despite several relaunches, major speeches and even two tax-cutting budgets, the PM has been unable to eat into Labour’s poll lead. His handling of a race row involving the Tories’ biggest donor and the defection of Lee Anderson to Reform UK have only added to questions about his political judgement.

Backbench MPs are considering whether replacing him now could minimise the scale of the expected electoral defeat facing the Tories this year.

Why is Penny Mordaunt tipped to succeed him?

Several papers, including the Daily Mail and The Daily Telegraph, have reported on a plot to install Ms Mordaunt in Mr Sunak’s place.

It is believed the leader of the House of Commons could command both the support of the moderate wing of the party and be tolerated by the Tory right.

Having the backing of the whole party is crucial, with MPs desperate to avoid another damaging Conservative leadership contest.

In the leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson, Ms Mordaunt finished eight votes behind Liz Truss, missing out on the chance to face Mr Sunak in the run-off.

But an ally of Ms Mordaunt denied there was a plot to install her as Tory leader, describing the plans as “nonsense”.

What would happen if Mordaunt took over?

If Ms Mordaunt replaced the prime minister, regardless of whether there was a leadership contest, the pressure to call a snap general election would be intense.

She would be the fourth prime minister since the 2019 general election, and the third imposed on the public by the Conservative Party without a vote.

She would likely take the time to settle into the role but waiting until the autumn, when the general election is expected to take place, might be untenable.

Will it happen?

Aside from a few vocal Conservatives on the right, few MPs have publicly called for Mr Sunak to go.

On Sunday, former Tory chairman Sir Jake Berry said rumours of a plot are being briefed out by “incompetent” advisers in Downing Street. And he denied being involved in any move to replace Mr Sunak.

While the prospect of Mr Sunak being ousted seems unlikely right now, MPs may be spurred into action after the upcoming local elections.

There are 2,636 seats up for election across 107 local councils, as well as 11 mayoral contests on 2 May.

When the same seats were last up for grabs, the Conservatives under Mr Johnson made significant gains at the expense of Labour under Sir Keir Starmer.

The relatively strong performance in 2021 will likely add to the scale of the losses, given the Conservatives have since plummeted in the polls.

A devastating performance could serve as a warning of what is to come, lighting the touchpaper and sparking a full-scale rebellion against the prime minister.