Rishi Sunak faces a triple by-election trap set by Boris Johnson

Three Commons vacancies are looming that the prime minister could do without, says Sean O'Grady

Boris Johnson is still causing headaches for his (latest) successor (PA)

Rishi Sunak faces three by-elections if MPs nominated for peerages by Boris Johnson leave the House of Commons. The prospective contests could hardly have worse timing from the government’s point of view, after a disastrous set of local elections and a Labour lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls usually into double figures.

What’s up for grabs?

Seats in the House of Lords for three MPs particularly close to Mr Johnson: Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams and Alok Sharma, who’ve been waiting for their elevation since Johnson quit last year, but his resignation honours have been delayed (apparently some nominations are especially problematic). If they do move to the Lords, they will create vacancies in Mid Bedfordshire, Selby and Ainsty (in North Yorkshire) and Reading West.

Could the Tories hold the seats?

Holding all three looks impossible given the state of public opinion generally and what can be gleaned from the local elections. Reading West looks like a nailed-on Labour gain, with only a 4 per cent swing (4 voters in 100 changing their vote) needed to win, set against a current national swing to Labour since the 2019 general election of around 11 per cent.

In Mid Bedfordshire, there’d be a decision for opposition parties and voters about which of Labour or the Liberal Democrats would be best placed to win. Labour is in second place at 21 per cent share of the vote last time to the Lib Dems’ 13 per cent, but both are puny compared to the 60 per cent won by Dorries. Given the rural nature of the seat and its social profile, it might in reality suit the Lib Dems better in a by-election. This was very much what happened in Tiverton and Honiton last year when tactical voting allowed the Lib Dems to leapfrog the other two parties into a stunning victory; Labour lost their deposit.

The trickiest battle to call would be Selby and Ainsty, not so far from Sunak’s own seat in Richmond. The Conservatives enjoy a normally comfortable majority of 35 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats a distant third (9 per cent) and Labour on 25 per cent. It would require a big swing and almost total tactical voting by the Lib Dems and Greens (3 per cent) and possibly the Yorkshire party (3 per cent) to secure a victory for Labour here, and it feels improbable. But it can’t be ruled out.

What would it mean to lose them?

Losing only Reading would be seen as a Tory miracle. Holding at least one other would also come as a relief given their current pitiful state. Losing all three would certainly trigger another round of Tory in-fighting. At this stage in parliament it’s difficult to see a leadership challenge to Sunak, but the chatter would be destabilising. It would add to the momentum behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats and further demoralise the Conservatives.

When would these three by-elections take place?

It would make sense for Sunak to get these by-elections out of the way now rather than later, given that the general election can’t be that far away. If he could postpone them until parliament is dissolved he’d be doing well. More likely they will go ahead in the summer, when everyone’s more interested in their holidays.

Could any others join the list?

Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, who was tipped for the ermine, seems to be willing to carry on in the Commons for what’s left of this parliament. Ironically, the Tories would have a better chance of holding on to his Dumfries and Galloway seat because the SNP, only just behind in 2019, has collapsed even faster than the Conservatives.

Otherwise, there’s always the possibility that the Commons privileges committee will sanction Boris Johnson so severely it will trigger a recall petition and a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. Barring divine or diabolical intervention, the seat is Labour’s, whether Mr Johnson stands again or not.

There are also various Labour and Conservative MPs in varying states of suspension, and any of them could conceivably end up quitting or being forced out between now and the general election.