Does Reform UK have a real chance of beating the Tories in this election?

As Nigel Farage celebrates his party’s first polling lead over the Conservatives, Sean O’Grady takes a look at how likely it is that Reform could become the official opposition

Nigel Farage is gloating about finally overtaking the Tories (PA)

Nigel Farage, reinstalled as leader of Reform UK, is on a roll. You may have seen the social media clip of the beaming extremist, sat in the back of a cab, rapping “Guess who’s back” to Eminem’s classic 2002 track “Without Me”. Farage is gloating about finally overtaking the Tories, albeit in one opinion poll, and is merrily trolling Rishi Sunak, whose campaign has been troubled to say the least. Reform UK, according to Farage, will win seats in the Commons on 4 July, and he insists that, whatever happens, his party will be the opposition to Labour.

It’s a good moment to take a look at Farage...

Is Reform UK ahead of the Tories?

Quite possibly, but that’s not the most important thing. As YouGov, the pollsters concerned, point out, with Reform on 19 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent, the usual 3 per cent margin of error could mean that the Tories are in fact as much as 5 per cent ahead; or Reform could actually be on a “real” rating of 22 per cent, with the Tories trailing on 15 per cent – a substantial seven-point difference.

The much more important thing is that the trend seems to be upward for Reform UK, with the Tories attracting historically feeble levels of public support and Farage boosting Reform’s profile. In other words, the fact that Reform is so close to the Tories is, or should be, quite astonishing.

Why is Reform doing so well?

It’s mainly a function of Tory weakness. Reform is a receptacle for those who, like Farage, hanker for the Thatcherite era and are especially exercised by migration and so-called “culture war” issues, such as trans rights.

How many seats will Reform win?

Not many. Probably between zero and four – though it’s hard to say, because Reform, as the Brexit Party, didn’t stand in Tory seats at the 2019 general election, so its “base” is difficult to discern. Additionally, there are sui generis factors at work, such as the impact of Farage’s personality in Clacton and the rival Ashfield Independents in Lee Anderson’s seat in Nottinghamshire.

Is Reform UK going to be the opposition to Labour?

Not in the formal sense, because the Tories or even the Liberal Democrats are far more likely to have the number of seats required to qualify as the official opposition party. Indeed, the more votes Reform attracts, the more chance that Ed Davey will be facing Keir Starmer across the despatch box at Prime Minister’s Questions rather than the next Tory leader.

However, Farage has committed to lead Reform for the next five years, though his agitation will be directed at least as much at the Conservatives as towards Labour.

All that said, if Reform continues to advance at the Conservatives’ expense – say, rising to around 25 per cent in the polls – then it could actually “take off”, overtake the SNP and Liberal Democrats, and leapfrog to win 100 seats and form an official opposition.

What does Farage want?

Now, it’s to be “the opposition to Labour”; but the prospect of a “reverse takeover” of the Conservatives following the election is never far from mind, and there are calls to “unite the right”. He says he doesn’t wish to join the Conservatives, but you never know.

What does he stand for?

The Reform manifesto is published on Monday, but there’s a draft “contract with the people” that’s got some funny ideas in it. These include: exempting everyone on less than £20,000 a year from paying tax, at enormous expense; the rejection of climate science; net zero migration, which would strangle the economy; an anti-vaccination public inquiry; scrapping the NHS and introducing a two-tier insurance system for healthcare; and aiming for 70 per cent self-sufficiency in food in the UK, something not seen since before the industrial revolution.

Brexit didn’t reduce migration, and neither did the “Australian-style points system” Farage favoured, so now he is trying a new tack.

Could Reform UK merge with or take over the Conservative Party?

It’s an intriguing idea, with at least one major obstacle. Reform UK Limited is a company, rather than a traditional party with the usual membership/association democratic structures. Frustrated at dealing with the fractious Ukip national executive, Farage’s later vehicles have taken the form of limited companies, so that “party members” have no voting rights and little say over policies or the leadership. They are merely donors. Farage owns 53 per cent of Reform UK Limited, with “chairman” Richard Tice holding 33 per cent and two other associates on 7 per cent each.

So Farage might well try to transpose his favoured corporate structure into the new entity, again granting him quasi-dictatorial powers plus control of the old Conservative Party’s assets and “brands”, including representation in devolved parliaments, local authorities, mayoralties, and the House of Lords. At any rate, the new party – let’s call it the “Conservative, Unionist and Reform Party”, or CURP – would have Farage in charge of what is still quite a formidable machine and heritage.

Where that leaves the next Tory leader, with the hovering presence of Boris Johnson “looking for the ball to come out of the scrum”, is anyone’s guess. Suella Braverman and her allies seem keen on a deal with Farage; Priti Patel, James Cleverly, and what’s left of the One Nation Group and the moderate body of Conservative voters, much less so. The idea might be for Farage and Johnson, say, to “unite the right”, but it would likely just lead to another Tory split and further chaos. For the Tories and Britain alike, Farage means trouble.