Can opinion polls tell us for certain who will win the election?

With only a week to go before the big day, Sean O’Grady looks at how reliable political polls really are – and at what can go wrong

Even in elections that yield very clear winners, such as the one in 1997, the polls can be out (PA)

The 2024 general election has been the most “polled” in British history. More companies have conducted more polls, and with a greater variety of methods, than in any previous contest. In terms of seats, the predictions have varied wildly – from around 55 seats for the Conservatives up to around 200.

One fact, though, has been remarkably constant since before the beginning of the campaign – indeed, since at least the start of the year. Labour has enjoyed a consistent lead of around 20 percentage points over the Conservatives, and the near-certainty of forming the next government with at the very least a substantial majority. Still, there are some interesting questions to be asked...

Could the polls be wrong?