Is the row over the attempt to overturn Owen Paterson’s suspension affecting the opinion polls?

The Conservative lead seems to have narrowed slightly, while Boris Johnson’s approval rating hit an all-time low of minus 20 according to one survey, reports John Rentoul

Owen Paterson, listening to debate about whether he should be suspended (PA)

There have been three opinion polls carried out since Wednesday, when Conservative MPs were whipped to block the suspension of Owen Paterson, a former Tory cabinet minister who broke the rules banning paid lobbying. The Conservatives remain ahead in all of them, but only by one percentage point in two, and three points in the other.

This is a further narrowing of the Tory lead that peaked at 12 points in May when vaccine euphoria was at its height, but it is not the dramatic shift that might have been expected after the prime minister made what he in effect admitted was a bad decision. Asking Tory MPs to vote to overturn the independent standards committee verdict against Paterson looked corrupt; reversing that attempt and leaving Paterson feeling he had no choice but to resign his seat looked incompetent. Yet the penalty in the court of public opinion seems so far mild.

In part, this is because the typical voter pays little attention to politics, even when it dominates the headlines. It is also too early to be sure how much of an impact those headlines have had. Two of the polls (YouGov and Deltapoll) started their surveys on Wednesday itself when the impact of the reporting would not have begun until the evening, and the big effect of the prime minister’s U-turn the next day would not have been felt until Thursday or Friday.

The Opinium Research poll was carried out on Friday and Saturday, and it put the Tories one point ahead. But what is more, on Friday and Saturday there were further headlines about Boris Johnson refusing to estimate the value of his free holiday at the Goldsmith family’s villa in Spain, while on Sunday there were new stories reviving the “cash for peerages” theme.

There are other signs in the polls so far that the furore has taken its toll. Opinium Research found that Johnson’s approval rating had hit an all-time low of minus 20. Asked, “To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way Boris Johnson is handling his job as prime minister”, 30 per cent said “approve” and 50 per cent said “disapprove”.

This shift was reflected in a sharp change in voters’ views of who would make the better prime minister, with Johnson named by 28 per cent, down five points since the previous week. Keir Starmer, who had a net approval rating of minus nine, was named by 26 per cent, up four points. These are dismally unenthusiastic ratings for both leaders, with 34 per cent saying “neither” and a further 12 per cent “don’t know”.

But it would seem that we have seen the early signs of an effect. The prime minister’s attempt to avoid independent scrutiny of the rules on standards will probably cause a small long-term reduction in his support, even if it could be outweighed by things that matter more to voters personally – just as Johnson’s refusal to sack Dominic Cummings last year did him some lasting damage, but he still managed to enjoy a lead in the polls throughout this year, thanks to the success of the vaccines programme.

The important thing will be the next few polls, which will include Redfield and Wilton’s weekly survey published at 5pm on Monday – last week it recorded a five-point Tory lead. This week’s figure, from a survey carried out wholly on Monday, could be significant in assessing whether Johnson really is the Teflon prime minister.