What happens when MPs return to Westminster after the Christmas recess?

Expect a row over the UK’s ‘transition period’ to dominate in the coming months, writes Ashley Cowburn

Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill is expected to sail through the Commons (AFP)

After a period of reflection and copious amounts of mince pies, MPs will soon be heading back to the House of Commons for the first term of a Boris Johnson majority government. Given the general election was held in December – for the first time in almost a century – there was little time before Christmas for No 10 and the Labour Party to press ahead with their most urgent business.

When parliament resumes on 7 January, all government attention will turn to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which passed its first hurdle in the House of Commons by a landslide ahead of the festive break.

But given Mr Johnson now holds the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher’s time in office, expect this crucial piece of Brexit legislation to be passed by MPs without any hiccups. Downing Street believes that once it secures passage through the House of Lords, ascent could be given to the bill around mid-January. It’s quite a contrast from the same point in January 2019 when Theresa May suffered the largest defeat of a sitting government in British political history as she lost a “meaningful vote” on her Brexit agreement by 432 to 202.

If Mr Johnson’s new agreement also receives ratification in the middle of the month at the European Parliament, then expect the government to legally sever the UK’s ties with the EU at 11pm on 31 January. After years of wrangling in the Commons over the issue of Brexit, it will be a historic moment – but it is far from the end of the process.

Britain at this point will enter what is known as the “transition period” where the UK will cease to be a member of the EU, but still follow the bloc’s rules, including the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, contribute to its budget and remain within its trading relationship.

Mr Johnson has insisted this period will end in December 2020 after striking a free trade agreement with Brussels. The problem with this is that hardly anyone in Brussels thinks the timetable is realistic. Just this week Ursula von der Leyen, the new European Commission president, said the transition period may need to be extended to resolve the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Expect this row to dominate in the coming months.

Over in the Labour Party, which is still reeling from its devastating general election defeat, expect to hear more on the post-mortem of the party’s worst performance at the ballot box in the post-war era. Former party leader Ed Miliband has joined the commission made up of voices from “different Labour traditions” and the inquest is expected to take a “meaningful look” at why the party has now lost four elections in a row.

The race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, who remains interim leader, will formally kick off when parliament returns on 7 January. The party’s ruling body – the National Executive Committee (NEC) – will meet the day before the Commons resumes to set out the official timetable, which is also expected to include any hustings events and the rules of the contest, including a cut off date for new members being able to vote. It is expected, however, that a new leader, and deputy leader, will be in place well ahead of the 2020 local elections in May.

But given that just two candidates have officially said they will run to replace Mr Corbyn – Emily Thornberry and Clive Lewis – expect the remaining announcements in the early days of the new year and ahead of the NEC meeting. Others expected to run include Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips, Sir Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey.