How long can Boris Johnson hang on to his health secretary?

The prime minister has made a habit of keeping under-fire ministers in post, writes Sean O’Grady. But will the latest revelations about Matt Hancock, who has survived a longer stint in frontline politics than many of his colleagues, be a step too far?

Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson on the campaign trail in November 2019 (Getty)

It is certainly puzzling that the prime minister has chosen not to sack his health secretary, given that Matt Hancock has confessed to breaking (his own) Covid rules, and possibly the law, as well as raising all manner of questions about conflicts of interest and breaches of the ministerial code. The affair also, you’d imagine, erodes the government’s authority and public confidence in it. As with the Dominic Cummings/Barnard Castle scandal last year, such blatant hypocrisy makes people wonder why they should still obey onerous rules.

But there is a pattern here, strongly suggestive of the Johnson style of government – to tough it out and never give the opposition a scalp if you can possibly avoid it. This is, broadly, what Johnson did with Robert Jenrick (murky planning row), Gavin Williamson (exams fiasco), Priti Patel (bullying) and Cummings (Barnard Castle – though not later on). Eventually the tumult dies down, the media caravan moves on, and often as not the problem can be kicked into the long grass with the promise of some inquiry or other. Indeed, this is how Johnson managed to avoid having to sack himself over the Downing Street refurb and a few other little local difficulties.

For every premier you have a choice as to what to do with a minister in trouble. One approach is to just cut ’em loose at the first whiff of trouble, fairly or not. That was the Tony Blair way for most of his time in office, and administered even to his closest allies, such as Peter Mandelson. Or you stick with the idiots until the next reshuffle, which is mostly what Margaret Thatcher did (she was much more damaged by ministers resigning against her will). Or, the worst of all worlds, is to give errant ministers, backbenchers or aides the benefit of the doubt and dither, only to have to bow to pressure eventually and look weak – the trap that John Major, Gordon Brown and Theresa May tended to fall into.

Johnson is also able to ignore the calls for Hancock’s head because he is unusually shameless and careless of public, press and parliamentary opinion. He knows he has got away with it before, he has a 10-plus-point lead over Labour, he’s mostly done well in recent elections (notwithstanding the loss of Chesham and Amersham), and his Commons majority of 80-plus speaks for itself. He has no serious rivals for the leadership (possibly excepting Rishi Sunak), and he likes to get his way. The Tory press will enjoy tearing Hancock to bits, and calling for his head, but they are basically supportive of the prime minister.

MPs disturbed about the effect on the polls – and we shall soon see how many people want Hancock to go – know that a reshuffle is any way at hand, and a bit of a clearout overdue. So Hancock may be gone before too long in any case.

Matt Hancock looks at the phone of his aide Gina Coladangelo, who he was caught kissing on CCTV, as they leave the BBC earlier this month (AFP/Getty)

Of course, there are other, even baser motivations in keeping Hancock where he is for now. As Cummings revealed, Johnson may think that the health secretary is “hopeless” and ought to be fired, but knows he is also insulation for Johnson if the situation on Covid struts ugly – Hancock is an oven-ready scapegoat, to coin a phrase. Johnson is also well aware that Hancock’s misdemeanours mirror and echo his own, not least in the case of his affair with Jennifer Arcuri while he was mayor of London, a scandal which is still rumbling along. Sacking Hancock would pose uncomfortable questions about his own position. It would also feed into the developing “Tory sleaze” narrative. Having Hancock reshuffled away in due course minimises that effect.

Hancock is thus, to use another political cliche, a dead man walking, a zombie secretary of state in the middle of a pandemic, distracted and damaged by the recent reversion, and, very likely, even more hopeless than he was before. He cannot show his face in public, and everyone in Whitehall is giggling at him. The press won’t let go of the story for days yet. Some people, such as the prime minister, thrive in such conditions; others would wilt. We will soon see whether Hancock, who has survived quite a few scrapes in his time, can get through the heat a little longer, or whether he needs to spend more time with his family.