The real numbers to watch in these local election results

Sean O’Grady on the trends to look out for and why this year’s polling matters

Cockapoos Harvey and Luna outside a polling station in Bracknell, Berkshire, while owner Darren Nisbett voted on Thursday (PA)

Embarrassed politicians often dismiss opinion polls, arguing that the only thing that really matters is real votes in real ballot boxes. If true, the local elections in much of England are an excellent test of public opinion. This round of elections will be the first since Rishi Sunak became prime minister, the first since the chaos surrounding the successive falls of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the first since Labour took a substantial lead in the opinion polls, and the first since the onset of the cost of living crisis.

How good a guide will these local election results be?

Pretty good: millions of real votes in real ballot boxes. However, there are some caveats. About a quarter of the votes will be going to various independent candidates, which is obviously not something that happens in general elections. There seems to have been some increase in independent political activity in recent years, partly a result of the post-Brexit realignment. Many might revert to the Tories in a normal general election, or cast a protest vote for Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens – or even stay at home.