The Lib Dems are set for fewer votes but more MPs than Reform UK – will this spark calls for electoral reform?

Ed Davey’s party will likely pick up seats where they are a clear second to the Tories, as Sean O’Grady looks at the possible political landscape after 4 July

Davey’s party are only polling at 9 per cent for voting intention (PA)

When this election is over, there will be much attention on the new government, the plight of the opposition, and the prospects for the nation. One of the more important issues that will also inevitably re-emerge is how the British first-past-the-post system can throw up some exaggerated and eccentric outcomes in parliament, and with that will come another great debate on electoral reform. The performances of the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and Reform UK will present this issue in sharp relief.

So how are the Liberal Democrats doing?

Disappointingly. Their poll ratings usually rise during the formal period of a general election because of the increased (and fairer) coverage they receive in the broadcast media, but they’re seemingly stuck at the moment, and they have started from a low base.

Ed Davey has been leader since after the previous fiasco of the 2019 general election, when his predecessor Jo Swinson gifted Boris Johnson his early “Get Brexit Done” election. She gave the impression that she was headed into No 10 with a mandate to reverse Brexit. In the event, she garnered 11.7 per cent of the vote, 11 MPs and lost her own seat. Yet now, at a time of almost unparalleled Tory unpopularity, the Lib Dems are registering about 9 per cent in voting intention polls. So, depending on how things develop, and despite excellent by-election and local election success, on 4 July they may well do worse than they did last time around on vote share. Indeed, the party will probably slide into fourth place, well behind Reform UK on votes cast.

Why so weak?

It’s sadly true that the student tuition fees fiasco and facilitating the 2010-15 Cameron-Clegg “austerity” coalition hasn’t been forgotten. The Greens and, latterly, Ukip/Brexit Party/Reform UK and indeed Keir Starmer’s Labour Party have also become receptacles for the protest vote, usually in the past monopolised by the Liberal Democrats. Arguably, Davey isn’t as charismatic as some of his predecessors, but the main problem is how Starmer has re-colonised the social democratic centre ground. Davey’s daft photo stunts have made a splash, attracting attention, and affection, but not thus far turbocharged things.

So they won’t have many MPs, then?

There’s the rub. Simply because the Tories have fallen out of favour even more than the Lib Dems, the Liberal Democrats will pick up many seats where they are in clear second place to the Tories, or have a strong local government presence or a history in the seat, or a combination of all three. Thus they will expect to re-conquer their traditional base in the South West, make significant inroads in the blue-wall home counties, especially Surrey, and claim fresh territory such as in Cambridgeshire. Regaining past strength in Wales and pockets of the red wall seems a little beyond them now.

Depending on which polls you believe, they could well be on course for anything from 30 to 80 seats, beating the previous post-war peak of 62 won under Charles Kennedy in 2005. In most elections, they would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament but now it will be hardly noticed in the Labour landslide.

Could they do even better?

Again, depending on the polling figures and the model used to convert that into a prediction for the next House of Commons (a perilous task), it is just possible that the Liberal Democrats could get more seats than the Conservatives on far fewer votes. In such an admittedly optimistic scenario, Davey would then become leader of the opposition, despite being beaten in absolute votes by the Tories and by Reform. Such a bonanza for Davey depends on what effect the return of Nigel Farage will have on the Tory vote. If they start to fall into the teens in percentage terms, and/or the Liberal Democrats manage to nudge up a bit more into double figures, then such a bizarre outcome might transpire.

Why will the Lib Dems do so well on winning constituencies?

Historic Conservative weakness plus a long process of targeting their limited resources on key seats, underpinned by a resurgence at council level. A modest toll of votes can then be leveraged into a strong Commons presence. By way of contrast, at the 1983 general election Libe Dem predecessor the SDP-Liberal Alliance won 25.4 per cent of the vote, against Labour’s 27.6 per cent. The Alliance was rewarded with a mere 23 seats; Labour got 209.

Is there a case for proportional representation?

It will be loudly argued by Reform UK because they will get millions more votes than the Lib Dems but only a tiny number of MPs, if any, because their vote is so evenly spread across the country. The Greens, who’ll score a record result, will also feel aggrieved at their gross under-representation. The Lib Dems will have “fair votes” in their manifesto, as usual, but might not be in a hurry if now they are over-represented in parliament, an unfamiliar feeling. But in any case, Labour won’t have any incentive to change the system, and probably won’t propose any in the manifesto. It’s also worth remembering that in the 2011 national referendum on electoral reform (albeit not proper PR) the public rejected change.