The lessons to be taken from the Birmingham Erdington by-election

By-elections, after all, no matter how minor they might appear, represent what the politicians like to call ‘real votes in real ballot boxes’, writes Sean O'Grady

Sir Keir Starmer in Birmingham to congratulate newly elected Labour MP Paulette Hamilton (PA)

All by-elections carry some interest, even those held in safe seats, with a low turnout, in the middle of a war. So it is with Birmingham Erdington, the constituency that fell vacant after the death of the incumbent Labour MP, Jack Dromey.

The seat was held fairly comfortably by Paulette Hamilton, a local politician, as it was expected to be, but it was nonetheless encouraging news for Labour, and rather more mixed for the other parties. By-elections, after all, no matter how minor they might appear, represent what the politicians like to call “real votes in real ballot boxes”, and they obviously add to the information gleaned from opinion polls and other surveys of public sentiment about the parties and the government.

Hamilton managed to secure a swing to Labour, compared with the 2019 election, of about 4.5 per cent. That’s respectable enough, given that the turnout, on a wet Thursday afternoon in Brum in a secure seat, was so paltry – because low turnout tends to favour the Conservatives, traditionally. On the other hand, given the dramatic shift in the national polls towards Labour over the past year – following its calamitous performance in the 2019 general election – it’s arguably a little more disappointing.

Arguably, if Sir Keir Starmer were solidly on course for Downing Street, Hamilton should have won a more thumping majority. Even so, it doesn’t quite live up to the Conservative candidate Robert Alden’s claim when he said: “This is a seat that has been Labour over the last 85 years. And the fact the majority is so small here today is really a damning indictment of where the Labour Party is nationally.” Some Tories were also spinning to no great purpose, after the polls closed, that the result would be closer than it turned out to be.

The Erdington result probably reflects reasonably well the relatively healthy Labour lead in the polls (compared with the party’s collapse in 2019, and most of the period thereafter) but also a certain amount of the recent Conservative revival, as Partygate has faded from the headlines, and before the cost of living crisis bites even harder. It isn’t by any means the sort of calamitous deposit-losing result for the Conservatives that they might have feared. For now, the challenge to them from the libertarian right, Reform UK, also remains muted – 1.7 per cent in Erdington, with their best showing of 6.6 per cent in Bexley.

Taking the by-elections since 2019 as a whole, Ukip remains a spent force, and the various far-right extremists poll spectacularly badly. The Greens are holding steady, though, on balance – a small worry for Labour and the Lib Dems in some marginals.

Erdington doesn’t tell us that much about the kind of red wall seat Labour needs to win back from the Conservatives to have a hope of forming the next government. Polling there suggests considerable dissatisfaction with the government: the big round of local elections in May will reveal much more about the political state of the nation.

Labour’s performance certainly wasn’t as spectacular as it has been in other by-elections recently, notably the 10 per cent swing it enjoyed in the safe Tory seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup last autumn. But the left’s claim that the party is being damaged by Starmer’s moderation/centrism/Blairism/timidity (according to taste) isn’t supported by the showing for the left-wing TUSC (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) candidate Dave Nellist, who was a Labour MP until 1992.

Erdington might also be another straw in the wind in regard to tactical voting. On the face of it, the Liberal Democrat showing of a miserable 1 per cent (vs 3.7 per cent in 2019) looks like a straightforward disaster, but it may be that some Lib Dem voters switched to Labour. The Lib Dems aren’t as down and out as their stagnant national poll ratings (circa 10 per cent) suggest. The Tories’ most high-profile defeats over the last year, in North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham, were to the Lib Dems, not Labour – but partly as result of Labour voters “lending” support to the party perceived to have the best chance of keeping the Conservatives out, as well as disillusionment with Boris Johnson and his government.

A last-minute controversy about remarks Hamilton made in reference to people’s frustration with the electoral system doesn’t seem to have had much impact. And Sir Keir will be pleased to see the first female black MP for a Birmingham seat in the Commons. However, the only direct “gain” from the Tories during his leadership has been the defection of the sitting Tory MP for Bury South, Christian Wakeford. By contrast, less than a year ago the Conservatives won Hartlepool from Labour, as the old Brexit Party vote defected to the Tories – a pattern that will help the Tories in some key Leave seats in the next election.

The embarrassment for the Labour leader is that he is still waiting to take his first parliamentary constituency from the Conservatives, something Labour actually hasn’t managed in almost a decade – Corby in November 2012 being the most recent example. Labour regaining one of its heartland seats in a hotly contested by-election really would be interesting. In the meantime, we’ll have the May council elections to entertain us.