How each contender can win the Labour leadership race

Some are more likely than others, but each of the final five has a possible route to victory, writes John Rentoul

Five alive: (from left) Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Sir Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry (PA/BBC)

Now there are five candidates, what chance does each of them have of winning the Labour leadership? Let us start with the odds given by the bookmakers. These are not reliable predictions, but they give an idea of how people who are prepared to put money on their predictions see the race.

Keir Starmer is the favourite, with a 73 per cent chance of winning. Rebecca Long-Bailey has a 17 per cent chance. Lisa Nandy is in third place on 9 per cent, with Jess Phillips and Emily Thornberry some way behind on 3 and 2 per cent.

Phillips and Thornberry obviously need a miracle, but remarkable things do happen in politics. After all, Jeremy Corbyn was a rank outsider at the start of the contest in 2015. But the rules have changed since then, and Phillips and Thornberry now need to get through the next stage of the election by winning nominations from trade unions or local Labour parties.