Will Labour’s hopes go west in Leicester East by-election?

After the recent Claudia Webbe experience, it’s unlikely that Keir Starmer will be able to fix it for someone from HQ to get the train from St Pancras and assume the nomination is theirs, writes Sean O’Grady

Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe was sentenced to 10 weeks in custody on Thursday, suspended for two years, after being found guilty of a campaign of harassment (Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty)

In all likelihood, four by-elections will be fought in the next few months. Two, in Southend and Old Bexley, are certain, and will fill vacancies caused by the deaths of Sir David Amess and James Brokenshire respectively. Given the circumstances, the Southend seat will not be contested by Labour, the Liberal Democrat’s and the Greens, and will thus be an exceptionally quiet affair. Bexley is also a safe Conservative seat, with no chance of an upset. Despite the controversies surrounding Owen Paterson, who has announced his resignation as MP for Shropshire North, that too will result in another Tory member. Psephologists will no doubt be able to derive some clues about the state of political play from the various swings and turnouts, but by far the most interesting prospective contest is the one in Leicester East – though it may be a while in coming.

The present MP, who has served since the 2019 general election is Claudia Webbe. Ms Webbe replaced Keith Vaz, who had troubles of his own, late in the last parliament, and was elected, with a much reduced majority, under the Labour banner. However she was suspended by Labour as a member when she was charged with harassment, and on her recent conviction she has been expelled from the Labour Party. She has thus been sitting as an independent member since. She is now appealing her case, and maintains her innocence. If her appeal fails then a petition will be set up to allow for a “recall” by-election. If ten per cent of the electorate of Leicester East sign up, about 8,000 people, then Ms Webbe will be forced out, and the seat will be up for grabs.

Having been a safe Labour seat for decades, Leicester East has gone volatile. There is a chance it might fall to the Conservatives, the first time they would have won here since 1983.

When Ms Webbe, a sincere Corbynite, was effectively parachuted into the seat before the last election it sparked protests in the local constituency Labour Party, and it’s fair to say not all the activists went all-out to get her elected. Even though Vaz had had a few scrapes in his career and was censured by the parliamentary watchdog, and ridiculed in the press for events in his private life (with no suggestion from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg that he deserved a “right of appeal” and the quality of mercy), he remained popular with his local fan base. He become chair of the local party, and will anyway be a major influence in the selection of a successor candidate to Webbe.

So the choice of the next Labour candidate will not be straightforward, whether or not anyone wishes to reflect on the relatively large population with Asian heritage. There is the possibility of a Vaz comeback, which might be a bit awks for Labour given the general fuss about “Tory sleaze” right now. Sources close to Vaz have dismissed the idea as “tittle tattle”, which is not quite a pledge neither to seek nor accept the nomination if pressed upon him. Another option would be an alternative member of the Vaz dynasty (his sister Valarie is also a Labour MP, for Walsall South), such as his daughter Anjali, or sister, Penny McConnell. Some might cry “nepotism” in such an event, though it might not count for much.

After the Webbe experience, it’s unlikely that Keir Starmer will be able to fix it for someone from HQ to get the train from St Pancras and assume the nomination is theirs.

Whoever Labour picks will be up against it. Ms Webbe haemorrhaged support at the 2019 election. The swing against Labour was extraordinarily bad even in a disappointing year for the party. The swing to the Conservatives was some 15.3 per cent, compared to 8.7 per cent in Leicester West (Liz Kendall) and 3.3 per cent in Leicester South (Jon Ashworth). Labour’s majority fell from 22,428 in 2017 to 6,019, and the Tories only need a swing of about 7 per cent to win the seat. The other parties are, basically, nowhere – the Lib Dems on 5.7 per cent came third.

Still more ominously for Labour, a local council by-election in July in the constituency (Humberstone & Hamilton ward) saw a rare Conservative gain, and the Tories also greatly improved their position in the North Evington ward (also Leicester East) in a council by-election in May. Bear in mind that the city is a virtual one-party state with a Labour city mayor, Labour holding 52 out of 54 seats on the council, and having elected three out of three Labour MPs in 2019 (the last Tory MP having gone extinct in 1987 and a brief Lib Dem interlude in Leicester South, after a by-election, from 2004 to 2005).

Leicester East is not exactly “red wall”, but it represents an unusual opportunity for Boris Johnson to prove he can win even in the most inhospitable of climates, and turn the “sleaze” argument right round while he’s at it.