Lib Dem leadership contenders have their eyes on a big prize

As the party’s contest nears, the Lib Dems and Labour are already calculating how to take seats from the Tories in 2024, writes Kate Devlin

MPs including Layla Moran (middle row, second from left), Christine Jardine (middle row, third from left), and Ed Davey (front and centre) (PA)

As the economy faces crisis and Boris Johnson begins the difficult process of bringing the UK out of lockdown, why has Keir Starmer said that Scotland is one of his “top” priorities?

The Scottish parliament elections are not scheduled to be held until next year, but their outcome is increasingly on the agenda at Westminster, and not just for Labour.

Sir Keir was frank about the job his party faces to achieve even second place in a part of the UK once described as a Labour fiefdom.

After a brief revival at the 2017 general election, when the party took a handful more seats, last year Ian Murray, the MP for Edinburgh South, once again became the only Scottish Labour MP on the green benches.

Without a major reversal of fortune in Scotland, Labour will struggle to win a majority at Westminster in 2024, and Sir Keir will struggle to become prime minister.

So the Scottish election is not just about another potential indyref, although that is a crucial issue, but a chance to check the health of his party.

It will show Sir Keir how much he needs to do to establish Labour as a force in Scotland again.

Labour’s fortunes north of the border next May will also be watched intensely by the Liberal Democrats.

Much diminished from their heyday, with just 11 MPs currently at Westminster, many in the Lib Dems believe Labour’s struggles point a way forward for them and mean they could hold the keys to Downing Street in four years.

The race sees Layla Moran, the party’s education spokesperson, as the more left-wing candidate, up against the former energy secretary Sir Ed Davey.

Earlier this week Tim Farron, the former Lib Dem leader, who stayed neutral in last year’s election contest, broke his silence to announce he was backing Sir Ed.

The news came as a surprise to some in the party, who see his politics as more closely aligned to Ms Moran’s than Sir Ed’s.

But Mr Farron told The Independent that winning was “everything”.

Electoral success had to be the key focus, he suggested, because not only would Labour struggle to secure a majority at the next election but Boris Johnson could lose his.

For that to happen, Labour would need the Lib Dems to win seats from the Tories, he argued.

In 80 of the 91 seats where the party is currently second place, their main rival is a Tory.

Sir Ed would help the party appeal to reluctant Tory voters, Mr Farron argued.

On the other side of the battle, Ms Moran’s supporters believe it is her politics that will take the party closer to Labour.

With the arrival of Sir Keir, much more moderate than Jeremy Corbyn, some senior Lib Dems now believe that the parties could even develop their closest relationship since the days of Paddy Ashdown and Tony Blair.

The prize is potentially big. And it’s one reason why the Lib Dem leadership contest is more important than its not-quite-a-dozen MPs would suggest.