Will Keir Starmer agree to an EU youth mobility scheme after all?

A British plan for young people to work and study in other European countries has apparently been leaked, as John Rentoul explains

British negotiators are “to table” a plan to allow tens of thousands of young EU workers and students to come to the UK to live and work for two years, while Britons aged 18-30 would be able to go to EU countries on the same terms.

In response to a report in The Times on Thursday night, No 10 insisted that it “doesn’t recognise” the plan and that the government position has not changed. Keir Starmer has repeatedly said there are no plans for a youth mobility scheme.

He has been determined to avoid anything that could be described by the Conservatives and Reform as a return to free movement and a betrayal of Brexit.

But most voices speaking for the EU have suggested that such a scheme would be a necessary part of any agreement to “reset” the relationship between Britain and the EU. Talks about a renewed relationship have accelerated recently as both sides hope to unveil a new deal at a UK-EU leaders’ summit in May.

So what is going on?

It is a negotiation. That means neither side wants to admit it is prepared to make a concession until it is ready to do so, and has some idea that the other side might give it something in return.

That means, in turn, that the two sides have to try to sound each other out without committing themselves. It seems that The Times has been briefed by someone on the EU side about a tentative proposal from the British side. The British government will continue to deny that it has changed its policy until it is prepared to go public, but it was notable that the comment from No 10 – that it “doesn’t recognise” the plan – was not a denial that something like it is on the table.

This is not surprising, because the costs to Keir Starmer of agreeing to a youth mobility scheme are actually fairly low, provided it is strictly limited.

What are the limits in the British plan?

According to the leak, the British plan proposes that young people would be able to come to the UK to work or study for two years, with the possibility of a one-year extension. They would not be able to claim state benefits while they were here; on the contrary, they would have to pay an NHS “surcharge” in advance in case they needed to use the health service. Finally, the number would be capped – The Times mentions “rumours” that the British would suggest a number of 70,000 a year.

Each of these restrictions is likely to be resisted by the EU. Its proposal is for a scheme with a four-year time limit; with no charge for healthcare; and with numbers that are unrestricted. “Mobility is not subject to quota,” declares a European Commission document.

Will there be a compromise?

The history of negotiations between Britain and the EU suggests that representatives from both sides will enter a “tunnel” of total secrecy a few days before the summit meeting on 19 May – and emerge some hours after the deadline with a deal and colourful stories of bad food and all-night talks. Possibly a scheme to allow young people to go to each others’ countries for three years, with a new European health insurance card (Ehic) scheme instead of a surcharge paid upfront.

Both sides want to do a deal, although it is probably fair to say that there is more in it for the British than for the EU. Starmer would like to secure a deal to ease border checks so that he can claim to have mitigated some of the costs of “the Tories’ botched Brexit”.

But he needs to convince his European partners that he cannot go far in “reversing Brexit”. EU leaders find this hard to understand, but Starmer and Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff and campaign guru, think that Labour risks losing more votes from its few Leave voters if it “betrays” Brexit than from its many Remain voters if it keeps its distance from Brussels.