How will the sexual assault allegation against Joe Biden impact the 2020 election?

The accusation about the former vice president is serious, but the race for the White House is still likely to be decided by the economy, writes John Rentoul

The Democratic presidential candidate has denied the accusation against him, saying the alleged incident 'never happened' (AP)

Joe Biden has been in politics so long that it is not surprising that he tows a bit of baggage behind him. A presidential run in 1988 was derailed when he plagiarised a Neil Kinnock speech; his son Hunter’s business dealings have been, well, complicated; and he has been accused of touching women inappropriately.

In the past, these accusations have been about his behaviour at public events, and he has brushed them off by saying he is a “tactile politician” – although they have been awkward for someone who as vice president promoted legislation against sexual harassment.

Last year, however, as another run for the presidency became likely, new allegations were made of unwanted touching, one of them as recent as four years ago. And one of those accusers, Tara Reade, who worked in Biden’s Senate office in 1992-93, this year added the more serious charge of sexual assault to her previous allegation of inappropriate touching.

On Friday, Biden responded by saying: “It never happened.” She says she filed a complaint at the time, in 1993; he says he has asked the National Archive to look for it. He seems confident. But then Bill Clinton sounded categorical when he said: “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”

For the moment, no one apart from the two people concerned can be sure – and even they may have differing but honestly believed memories about what happened 27 years ago.

By chance, I saw Biden around that time. I interviewed him for the BBC in April 1993 – as chair of the Senate foreign relations committee, he was pressing President Clinton to act more forcefully in Bosnia. I had seen him at a White House event earlier that year: he was deep in conversation with Hillary Clinton and I can confirm that he was “tactile”. Beyond that, I don’t know.

How damaging Reade’s allegation is depends on what happens next. If there is a document recording her complaint, Biden will be in difficulty. Under the political law that says the cover-up is often more dangerous than the original misdemeanour, his denial would look bad.

If no piece of paper is forthcoming, the allegation remains embarrassing and it is likely to come up in interviews. It will be awkward for Biden to continue to say that women must be believed when they say they have been subjected to sexual violence – except in this case. Without further corroboration, though, the claim is likely to become just part of the noise of the campaign. Most voters know what they think of Biden, good and bad, and their perceptions are unlikely to be changed.

It does mean that Biden cannot go after Donald Trump’s known and attested behaviour towards women – but most voters also know what they think of President Trump. This election is likely to be decided by which of the two men voters think can better manage the economic disaster that is currently unfolding.